Even before last week’s selloff, we all felt like we had white knuckles during the fourth quarter.
Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) IPO prospectus. Big tech gains. Bond yields are skyrocketing. An unexpectedly high blue wave that sent the stock market rising – and then falling again.
While volatility (^VIX) is very high, investors are balancing on the knife’s edge between a flywheel of anxiety and a rebound.
As Goldman Sachs’ Panic Indicator suggests, the extreme could signal a continuation of Friday’s rebound ahead.
It’s a new week and we’ll have plenty of plot points scheduled to guide us.
Of particular note, we look forward to quarterly results from CoreWeave (CRWV) on Tuesday and Nebius Group (NBIS) and Cerebras Systems (CBRS) on Thursday, a few companies caught up in the post-election data center destruction.
What they have to say about their plans and prospects, the debt markets they have tapped, and the health of their business will be top of mind.
It’s a good time to have this just a week after midterms.
On the economic calendar, we’re in inflation mode again, especially after this red-hot jobs report.
We’ll start the week with consumer inflation expectations from the New York Fed before getting actual data on Tuesday – and big inflation numbers on Friday to close out the week.
2 Big AI Narratives Continue to Fight for Market Control
Which is more important: the business of AI chips and infrastructure or the companies that actually provide AI?
As we wrote in the Morning Brief on Friday: “A slowdown in data centers is bad for the stock market AI engine” and “A data center slowdown is GOOD for the Big Tech profit machine. »
Can Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) deliver AI at least some productivity and tools to customers with the compute they have – and make a lot of money doing so, moving from growth and scale to monetization?
Maybe! These companies have been in the green since the elections and are doing very well in a context of widespread liquidation. And while Tesla (TSLA) has sold off, SpaceX (SPCX) is generally doing well.
As DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas wrote on Thursday, you need to look at the entire week, not just Bloody Thursday, to see the big picture (no matter how small). And it’s pretty clear that this can be reflected in the general clues, but it’s mostly bullet points.
“As for what the market is saying over the past two days, we believe the moves are AI-centric and not omens of an impending recession,” Colas wrote, also noting that Google and Co. are doing well.
Gn bussni
