In this week’s Power Rankings, two governor races become more competitive as the final two weeks of campaigning begin.
In Florida, Hispanic voters will play an outsized role, and polls suggest that a large share of them have moved away from the Republican Party. In last week’s national Fox survey, 31 percent of Hispanic voters said they preferred the Republican candidate over the Democratic candidate. This represents a 12-point drop from their support for Trump in 2024.
The Republican candidate, Rep. Byron Donalds, will be happy to have DeSantis’ support. He remains popular in the state. Donalds still has the edge over Democrat and former Rep. David Jolly, who hopes former President Bill Clinton can bolster his support when they appear together for the first time today.
Still, this race is not a sure thing for the GOP. Florida is moving from Likely R to Lean R.
In Nebraska, Republican Governor Jim Pillen is seeking a second term. He won the first time with a 23-point victory, but with suburban and rural voters hesitant against Trump this cycle, the battle could be tougher.
Three other factors play a role.
First, the presence of Dan Osborn, one of four notable independents on the ballot in this year’s Senate elections, could increase Democratic turnout for challenger Lynne Walz in a gubernatorial race that would otherwise attract less attention.
There’s Pillen himself, who faced local resistance over a 5 percent budget cut and a hiring freeze in state government.
Finally, the runoff, which will feature third-party challenger Brett Lindstrom, a former state lawmaker who lost to Pillen in a Republican primary four years prior. He will appear on the ballot as an “America First” candidate. The party was founded in July.
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