People cast their ballots on the first day of early voting for the midterm elections in New York on October 24, 2026.
Ryan Murphy/AFP via Getty Images
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Ryan Murphy/AFP via Getty Images
Midterm coverage: Live results | What to know | Stories from across the country
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Democrats appear poised to regain control of the House on Tuesday. If they do, will their majority be built on a blue wave or on a tiny trickle of water? A previous NPR analysis found that both parties were spending heavily and widely in a competitive landscape that spanned 70 districts, ranging from long-standing toss-ups to newly competitive seats in deeply conservative areas.
Republicans entered Election Day with a slight 218-214 seat advantage in the House and faced serious headwinds as the ruling party. This midterm cycle has also seen a record number of departures from Congress, and polls show voters are unhappy with things like the economy and the ongoing war in Iran.
So what separates a good night for Democrats from a blue wave that sees dozens of House seats change hands? Here’s NPR’s cheat sheet on four types of House races to watch as the results come in:
Early closure of polling stations
The first results of the evening with national implications will likely come from Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District (KY-06) and the 5th from Indiana (EN-05), two districts where polls close first (at 6 p.m. ET) and whose margins for President Trump in 2024 (15 and 17 points, respectively) could serve as a snapshot of voters’ bitterness toward Republicans.
Both Democrats and Republicans have spent big money in the race in Kentucky, where Democrat Zach Dembo faces Republican Ralph Alvarado. The increase in investment is therefore worth noting as a determining factor in the outcome. If Democrats flip one or both races, it will likely be a long night for the GOP.
Florida also counts and reports its votes quickly and is home to more than a half-dozen races that are considered toss-ups or that slightly favor one party or the other. So as these districts have winners predicted, there will be more information about other races across the country.
As in the case of Kentucky, both parties have spent significant sums in races like the open seat in FL-22 with Democrat Pia Dandiya facing Republican Casey Askar and Democratic incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz against Republican Scott Singer in the new drawing. FL-25 race.
Other races to watch: FL-27, NC-11, SC-01, VA-01
Big last minute expenses
Over the final seven days of the midterm elections, a handful of House races generated more than $10 million in ad spending, according to AdImpact data. This is a sign that both parties believe that the saying “It’s all about turnout!” is more than a cliché. This includes districts in Michigan, such as MI-07where progressive Democrat William Lawrence challenges incumbent Republican Tom Barrett for a seat that Trump won by just over one percent in 2024 and the open election MI-10where Democrat Christina Hines faces Republican Mike Bouchard.
New York Republican Rep. Mike Lawler NY-17 could be one of the few Republicans to retain his seat thanks in part to his party’s advantage in ad spending down the stretch against Democrat Cait Conley.
Three of Iowa’s four House races, IA-01, IA-02 And IA-03 are on the list of costliest elections, in part because of competitive gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections that are also up for grabs and driving up turnout.
Other races to watch: CO-08, PA-01, WA-03, WI-03
Electoral redistricting
This year’s Supreme Court ruling striking down part of the Voting Rights Act led many Republican-led states to redraw their House maps to eliminate Democratic-friendly districts in a typical election year — but this year is not typical.
Today, the political environment has deteriorated so much that seats like AL-02, held by democratic figures Shomari, OH-09 held by Democrat Marcy Kaptur and NC-01 held by Democrat Don Davis are all considered toss-ups at best and favoring Democrats over Republicans at worst.
In Texas, Latino voters appear poised to return to Democratic candidates and could prevent Republican Eric Flores from flipping the seat held by Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in 2017. TX-34 or Tano Tijerina of the overthrow of outgoing Democratic President Henry Cuellar in TX-28.
Other races to watch: CA-22, FL-09, FL-14, TX-35
The outer edges of the card
As results continue to be released, one thing to watch is how far the increased support for Democrats in conservative communities may go.
One race that has received surprising publicity attention is in Arkansas’ 2nd District (AR-02)where incumbent Republican Representative French Hill faces a well-known challenger in Democrat Chris Jones. By the time the election closes, nearly $10 million will have been spent over the past few months on the Little Rock-based seat, which Trump won by 15 points in 2024.
There are also many districts in states that have redrawn their maps where Republican gerrymandering could backfire, such as Ohio. In both OH-10 held by Republican Mike Turner and OH-15 Held by Republican Mike Carey, Trump won by more than 10 points in 2024. They are also in a state with competitive gubernatorial and senate races and stretch between the suburbs and exurbs of Dayton and Columbus with an electorate that could shift away from the GOP.
The margin in the North Carolina Senate race, where former Gov. Roy Cooper is expected to win against former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, could determine whether races like NC-03 are also in play. Rep. Greg Murphy’s district absorbed more Democratic-leaning voters after the latest map redraw.
Other races to watch: NC-09, NY-21 TN-09, WA-05
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