With the 2026 NFL season halfway through, it’s a good time to revisit my preseason quarterback levels and revise them based on what we’ve seen over the first two months.
Tiers are based primarily on each quarterback’s performance This season, while considering all of their work. We’ve seen a lot of quarterbacks start in 2026, but we’re limiting this exercise to the 32 passers we expect to start in Week 18 if they stay healthy. We didn’t take into account quarterbacks who were ruled out for the rest of the season, so you won’t find Jaxson Dart or Gardner Minshew on the list, but Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts were included.
With that out of the way, let’s move on to the levels. We’ll start at the bottom.
Replacement level | Promising, to be seen again
Underperformers | Productive but inconsistent
Play at a high level | MVP level | The big three
None of the five fan bases supporting these quarterbacks would be happy if they started on opening day next season. Deshaun Watson gained momentum in the clutch, but was downright unplayable out of it.
JJ McCarthy‘s pocket presence is still a glaring issue despite his solid debut in New York. The Dolphins signed Malik Willis as a stopgap, and while he’s been solid, he hasn’t been good enough to keep them from drafting a quarterback in the spring.
Daniel Jones looks completely broken, and Carson Beck was buried on Arizona’s depth chart before the team was forced to insert him into the starting lineup.
Let’s start with Fernando Mendozawho was brought into the Raiders’ starting lineup after the team sent Kirk Cousins back to Minnesota. I have high hopes for the No. 1 overall pick and wouldn’t be surprised if he plays like a Tier 3 quarterback once he gets his feet under him. He’s a fast processor with a powerful arm that doesn’t lose any accuracy when targeting the perimeter. The Raiders offense won’t be as efficient with veteran Cousins running the show, but it could be more explosive.
Bo Nix, Cam Room And Michael Penix Jr. all have a fatal flaw that holds them back:
- For Nix, he’s a pocket presence. If he showed more confidence in his pass protection and Denver’s offense, he would make a lot more plays.
- Ward just isn’t accurate enough to run a passing game in the NFL, but the talent is there.
- Accuracy is also an issue for Penix, but his lack of mobility has been a bigger obstacle.
Oh Justin. What did they do to you? If you actually study the tape, you can still see flashes of the pocket movement and arm talent that had Justin Herbert playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but Mike McDaniels’ “pure progression” passing game seems to have broken his brain. It seems like he has to have at least one terrible interception every week.
The talent is still there. A change in scheme and better supporting talent will allow Herbert to return to playing at a high level. This simply will not be the case in 2026.
Sam Darnold And Mayfield Bakertwo successful rehabilitation projects, both declined this season. I have more confidence in Darnold to change things. He’s been unlucky with turnovers, but if he can eliminate mistakes – or simply reduce them – he can be productive. Mayfield just can’t seem to stay healthy, and it may require a change in playing style for him to do so.
I don’t know what to think Matthew StaffordThis is the first half. He continues to record ridiculous throws, but every time a defense moves him out of his spot, the dropback is dead on arrival. I don’t know what to expect from the 38-year-old. We could be witnessing the beginning of the end of one of the greatest passing talents we’ve ever seen.
If the Jets had better training, Geno Smith would get more recognition for the season he’s having. He’s been the saving grace for an offense that’s been around league average in efficiency, despite an unreliable running game and questionable pass protection schemes. Smith’s pocket presence and downfield passing kept the offense afloat.
Bryce Young And Jayden Daniels are similar quarterbacks. Their attacks aren’t doing them any favors, but they’ve both remained productive in the face of lesser competition. Better defenses pose major problems for both. Their smaller frames will cause problems throughout their careers, making full buy-in difficult.
I have an “incomplete” rating on Jalen hurtswho struggled during a faulty attack in Philadelphia before fear of blood clots landed him on IR.
Tyler Shough is an interesting case. He’s certainly good enough to land a long-term job in New Orleans, but major improvement seems impossible. He’s already played a lot of soccer for a second-year pro. We may be closer to his peak than the Saints want to acknowledge. He is older than Trevor Lawrence and just a year younger than Jordan Love.
And then we have the old guys. I see Aaron Rodgers And Kirk Cousins in the same way. Both are well past their prime, but they know the ball well enough to get by — if their pass protection holds up. Put these guys under pressure and they will melt.
Caleb Williams was difficult to place. Although he played like a Tier 2 quarterback for most of the season, he also had two stinkers against Minnesota and Tampa Bay that can’t be overlooked. Williams still deserves credit for his improvement. He’s been more willing to let Ben Johnson’s offense work for him, and he’s taken his game to another level. He also improved his accuracy, which was the biggest area of concern early in the season.
The third-year starter may not be ready for one of the top levels yet, but he’s on track to get there very soon.
It’s difficult to classify Dak Prescott, CJ Stroud And Jared Goff. They are all effective pocket passers who had to overcome poor defenses – something I didn’t expect to write about Stroud this season. But without high-level physical ability, all three have a clear ceiling in their respective games. Prescott is the best of the three when he is at his best. Stroud has the most potential. And Goff is the most consistent.
Drake Maye would have gotten attention if not for his loss against Green Bay. I don’t want to overreact to one game, but this three-interception performance showed that his early season issues weren’t entirely resolved. I’m expecting a big second half for Maye though.
The Bengals abandoned the “under center” gimmick and let Joe Burrow cook, and a month later he is the MVP favorite. He’s playing at a ridiculously high level right now, but having two top-10 receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins — both in the top half of our list of top 50 players of the season — has eased the burden on the game. Still, if Burrow can keep that up all season, he could turn the “big three” into the “big four.”
If I had an MVP vote it would go to Jordan Lovewhich turns the Packers offense into a top 10 team based on expected points added. Green Bay doesn’t have a running game and its offensive line is in shambles. That didn’t stop Love from pushing the ball downfield with shocking efficiency.
Trevor Lawrence And Brock Purdy are also in the MVP discussion thanks to their efficient starts. These two get a lot of schematic help, but both play their roles as well as expected. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them won the award.
There are a few quarterbacks knocking on the door of this tier thanks to their play this season, but it will take more than nine games to prove they belong with these three, who have carried their teams to the playoffs and competed for MVP trophies almost every season they have been healthy.
Lamar JacksonGetting injured once again might have been enough to lose his spot if he hadn’t been playing so well before the freak thumb injury that landed him on IR. He was throwing as well as ever. His pocket movement looked sharper and he regained the mobility that lower-body injuries cost him in 2025. He also looked like a perfect fit for new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle’s offense.
I revisited his early season tape this week just to confirm that Jackson still belonged at this level, and it left no doubt.
The injury gods may have cost us an unprecedented season.
As for Patrick Mahomes And Josh Allendo I really need to explain why they are included here? Allen has once again been a workhorse for the Bills, and Mahomes is the only reason the Chiefs passing game has a pulse.
Gn sports
