Ready or not, Week 3 is already underway in the NFL, and it has everyone in suspense. On Thursday, the Atlanta Falcons – who haven’t made a trip to the red zone all season so far – went to Lambeau Field and dropped 35 points on the Green Bay Packers, picking up their first win of the season with Michael Penix Jr. back at the helm.
This just goes to show that anything can happen in the NFL once these games start, so you better keep your finger on the pulse of the comings and goings with everything going on in the league. This week is particularly important to make sure you have your ducks in a row because injuries have ravaged the slate, especially at key positions (quarterback, wide receiver, etc.). Lucky for you, it’s our job to keep tabs on all of this so you don’t have to, and we’ve formulated our picks for Week 3 accordingly.
If you’re just getting ready for another week of NFL action and need some help preparing your picks for the roster, allow us to do you a favor. Below you can find our five best bets for Week 3 as well as picks for every other game on the schedule.
NFL odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills
- Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubotry for free)
The Chargers feel like they are lost right now. They’ve lost two straight games that they should have won, looking at things purely from a talent standpoint. In fact, they are the first team to start 0-2, with both losses coming against teams that lost 14 or more games the previous season. And we’re supposed to expect them to invade Buffalo and take out Josh Allen and the Bills? Jim Harbaugh and the defense simply let Kirk Cousins throw for 253 yards through the air and three touchdowns. Allen is on an MVP trajectory through his first two games, totaling nine touchdowns. It’s a freight train, and it looks like the Chargers will be its next victim. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert hasn’t shown much in the first two games. The offense is averaging 14 points per game, and Herbert is being pressured at the second-highest rate (46%) in the NFL this season, although he has been blitzed at the fifth-lowest rate (23%). He struggled mightily on throws that traveled more than 10 air yards, throwing only one touchdown and three interceptions on such throws. Looks like it could get ugly.
Projected score: Bills 31, Chargers 20
The choice: Invoices -7
New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions
- Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubotry for free)
I feel like Fredo Corleone turning my back on the Jets like that. We backed them the last two weeks (directly in Week 1, then against ATS in Week 2), and they got paid both times. But as Paulie said in The Freedmen: “Now I have to turn my back on you.”
With that line below a touchdown, we’ll pounce on it in Detroit’s favor. This is an offense that has put up at least 30 points in each of the last two games, and both contests have turned into track meets. Even though New York has been dynamic this season (and I expect them to continue to be the darlings of the ATS for most of the year), I’m not sure Geno Smith and company are keeping up. Sure, this defense has only allowed 65.5 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks (second-lowest in the NFL), but that’s against backfields led by Tony Pollard and MarShawn Lloyd. Jahmyr Gibbs is a totally different animal, and I don’t see this level of containment on the field continuing.
The Lions’ fragile defense certainly gives me pause. They are giving up 35.5 points per game and 457.5 total yards per game through the first two weeks, which ranks 31st in the NFL. But like I said, if this turns into a shootout, I like Detroit’s chances with the multitude of weapons they have, especially considering the extra rest after playing Thursday. They are also 11-1 in a row and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games following a loss.
Projected score: Lions 33, Jets 21
The choice: Lions -6.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins
History will be made Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. Since 1970, the Chiefs haven’t covered a single game in which they were a double-digit road favorite. In these previous 11 instances, they are 0-10-1 ATS. This changes in week 3.
While Kenneth Walker III stole the show in week one, Patrick Mahomes was the one who really caught my attention. After a modest return in the season opener, where he still didn’t seem comfortable throwing the ball, Mahomes was BACK against the Colts, completing 32 of 47 passes for 382 yards and three touchdowns. If Mahomes closes on his own, throws the ball, and Walker provides a much-needed push out of the backfield, it’s hard to imagine the Dolphins having a chance of staying that close.
Miami was almost a two-touchdown underdog (-13.5) on the road last week against the Niners and couldn’t cover, losing 35-13. Brock Purdy sliced through the Dolphins secondary, missing just two of his 22 pass attempts on the day. Most of his production has gone to George Kittle (four catches for 80 yards and a touchdown), so you better believe Andy Reid will look to attack that same weakness with his star QB-TE duo of Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
Projected score: Chiefs 33, Dolphins 16
The choice: Chiefs -10.5
Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Commanders
- Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubotry for free)
It’s disappointing to see so many quarterbacks go down, especially Daniels. When healthy, he raised the ceiling for a commanders organization that desperately needed a shot in the arm. However, injuries have unfortunately been a big part of his story, and that is resurfacing with this latest elbow dislocation. With Daniels sidelined, Marcus Mariota (who has lost six of his last seven starts) gets the nod, and I just have a hard time understanding how the veteran can consistently put up points against this excellent Seattle defense.
The Seahawks enter this Week 3 game having allowed just 17 total points in the first two weeks, which is the fewest over two games by any team since 2013. They are also brilliant on the road, winning 15 of their last 16 games away from Lumen Field. Now we can pair this defense with their starting quarterback, Sam Darnold, who returns after missing time with a glute injury. Drew Lock has filled in admirably, but Darnold raises the ceiling for what is already a potent offense.
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Commanders 17
The choice: Seahawks -7.5
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints
The Raiders and Saints have been pleasant surprises to start the season. Las Vegas is 2-0, which puts them several games above .500 for the first time since 2021. Meanwhile, the Saints have been one of the league’s most potent offenses through two weeks and are coming off a notable upset against the Ravens in Week 2. Specifically, I think Tyler Shough is legit. The Saints quarterback was dynamite in the fourth quarter comeback against Baltimore, completing 12 of 14 for 119 yards and a touchdown. It will present the toughest challenge of the season so far for the Raiders, who have struggled against a lackluster Dolphins team and a Chargers club that, as I mentioned above, is lost. There’s real buzz for New Orleans to win the NFC South this season, and I expect that buzz to be palpable when the Saints open the Caesars Superdome for the first time after starting the year with back-to-back road games.
Projected score: Saints 24, Raiders 20
The choice: Saints -3
Rest of the group
Panthers at Browns
Projected score: Panthers 24, Browns 21
The choice: Panthers -2.5
Texans at the Colts
Projected score: Colts 26, Texans 23
The choice: Foals +1.5
Titans at Giants
Projected score: Titans 23, Giants 20
The choice: Titans +2.5
Bengals vs. Steelers
Projected score: Bengals 27, Steelers 20
The choice: Bengals -3.5
Patriots at Jaguars
Projected score: Jaguars 23, Patriots 21
The choice: Patriots +3
Cardinals at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 33, Cardinals 23
The choice: 49ers -8.5
Vikings among the buccaneers
Projected Score: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 21
The choice: Vikings -1.5
Ravens at Cowboys (in Brazil)
Projected score: Ravens 31, Cowboys 29
The choice: Cowboys +3.5
Rams at Broncos
Projected score: Rams 23, Broncos 20
The choice: Rams -2.5
Eagles at Bears (Monday)
Projected score: Eagles 26, Bears 20
The choice: Eagles -4.5
Gn headline
