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TThe name of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner is set to be announced this Friday, and the field appears to be wide open.
Last year’s prize went to Venezuelan Maria Corina Machado, a democracy and peace activist who sought to replace the Venezuelan government, despite intense pressure from the Norwegian Nobel Committee from Donald Trump to award her the coveted prize.
Machado symbolically presented his award to Trump, in “recognition of his unique commitment to our freedom,” after the United States forcibly removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power.
A number of high-profile people and organizations have been shortlisted for the 2026 prize, but experts warn last year’s controversy could affect this year’s outcome.
“I think the events of last year around the Nobel Peace Prize, and Maria Corina Machado then giving it to Trump, will affect some of the considerations they make,” said Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Oslo Peace Research Institute.
“One of the concerns of the committee is whether giving this award to someone might put that person under pressure from Donald Trump… I think the committee will look at whether the award does more harm than good,” he told Reuters.
The announcement is expected to be made on October 9 at 11:00 CEST (10:00 BST) by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
The Independent takes a look at some of the potential contenders for this year’s award.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump remained remarkably silent on the subject before his announcement this year – and it’s not hard to see why.
The White House chastised the Norwegian Nobel Committee for putting “politics before peace” when the US president was passed over for the 2025 prize.
In the year since, Trump has forcibly removed a world leader in Venezuela, launched an ongoing war in the Middle East and sowed chaos in Greenland by threatening to annex the island.
Maduro’s capture by the United States follows months of attacks on boats in the Caribbean Sea that Washington says were involved in drug trafficking.
Two months later, on February 28, the United States and Israel launched war against Iran, a conflict that has lasted for nearly eight months with no clear end in sight.
A few days before the announcement of the winner, Trump nevertheless has odds of 12/1 according to bookmakers Ladbrokes.
Pope Leo XIV
Pope Leo XIV has repeatedly made calls for peace since his election as pontiff in May last year.
In September, he urged Ukraine and Russia to resume negotiations to end the conflict which is entering its sixth year.
“War is back, even in Europe: a new senseless massacre, which costs countless civilian lives every day,” the pope told European leaders in Metz.
“We must… show courage in negotiations and be prepared to abandon certain positions for the greater good of peace,” he added, invoking a similar call from Pope Benedict XV in 1917, amid the carnage of World War I.
The American-born also had high-profile clashes with Donald Trump, after he spoke out against the war in Iran launched by the US president in February.
Bookmakers put the Pope’s odds at 12/1.
Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
The organization features prominently on almost every bookmaker’s favorites list and has been touted by experts as one of the favorites for the prize.
Following major budget cuts at the USAID level and a reduction in international support for aid operations in Sudan, community- and volunteer-led humanitarian networks have provided essential services.
The emergency response rooms constitute a vast network of local civic initiatives that have mobilized to fill the void left by these cuts. It is a local initiative that now operates in at least 13 provinces of Sudan, with 26,000 volunteers.
Dozens of charity kitchen workers have been killed in recent years, many in Khartoum when the Sudanese capital was under RSF control, one worker said in February.
“These groups provide essential humanitarian assistance in a very complex conflict environment, with limited access to external resources and logistics,” Mr. Gjerløw said in his personal 2026 Nobel Prize shortlist, adding that “volunteers often operate in areas of insecurity, facing threats of harassment and violence.”
The charity is one of the favorites to win the prize, with odds of 3/1.
Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine
The Ukrainian children’s rights activist has been praised for his work supporting children’s rights movements and child welfare reforms.
He is the founder and CEO of Save Ukraine, a charity that rehabilitates children affected by the war in Ukraine.
Founded in 2014 after Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea, it is today the largest humanitarian organization dedicated to rescuing stolen Ukrainian children and providing essential support to war-affected families.
So far, they have rescued 1,763 children from Russia and the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine.
The Committee to Protect Journalists
This press freedom organization has defended the rights of journalists around the world for more than 40 years.
Hundreds of journalists are attacked, imprisoned or killed every year, but they campaign for their release and fight for their right to report safely and without fear of reprisal.
CPJ works around the world, focusing on reducing the number of incarcerated journalists and fighting censorship.
Yulia Navalnaya
The widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has become a vocal critic of the government herself.
After her husband died in an Arctic penal colony in 2024, she resumed her fight for democracy, justice and the rule of law in Russia and was named among the favorites for a peace prize.
Last year, she denounced her husband’s death and accused the Russian state of planning his assassination. Moscow has denied killing Navalny.
She has since spoken publicly about the state of politics and freedom in Russia and posted videos about smart voting in September’s Duma elections.
Bookmakers currently give him a winning chance of 15/2.
Doctors Without Borders
Médecins Sans Frontières, also known by its French name Médecins Sans Frontières, has worked in more than 70 countries in 2026.
Last year, they say they admitted more than 1.7 million people to their hospitals and conducted more than 17 million consultations, most of them in active war zones and places devastated by natural disasters.
MSF already won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1999 for its pioneering work on several continents.
The organization currently has odds of 4/1.
Vanessa Nakate
Vanessa Nakate is a 29-year-old climate activist from Uganda, East Africa. She gained international fame in 2019 thanks to her solitary climate strike.
At the time, she launched the Vash Green Schools Project to bring solar electricity to schools in Africa, providing installations in dozens of schools and helping around 16,000 children.
Nakate is now a UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador and continues her work raising awareness about the climate crisis and its disproportionate impact on Africa. Its current rating is 19/10.
Marc Carney
Mark Carney became Canada’s prime minister last year, at a time when relations with the United States were at an all-time low.
The prime minister has remained stoic in the face of tough US trade sanctions and sought to strengthen ties with Europe, building a reputation for standing up to Trump.
Carney’s overseas stance took off in January this year at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he declared that the old international order would not return and urged middle powers to work together rather than wait for its restoration.
His speech came as European leaders grappled with Trump’s efforts to acquire Greenland and tariff threats.
He briefly became the favorite on the US Kalshi Prediction Market in late September, when traders rated his chances at 14 percent. His chances then plummeted.
“Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the Nobel,” Nelson Wiseman, a professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, told the Associated Press. “If Carney got it, it would make relations with Canada more difficult than they are.”
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