The San Francisco 49ers lost their first game of the season as penalties and turnovers cost them on both sides of the ball, and a missed extra point rendered the final drive moot.
Let’s look at the grades from Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons to help tell the story of the game.
Brock Purdy finished 21st in EPA per play in Week 7, but sixth in success rate. Interceptions heavily influence this EPA number, so this is no surprise. Purdy still completed 67% of his passes, with a respectable 7.2 yards per attempt.
On the first interception, Purdy had the running back open, but he was hesitant to pull the trigger.
Purdy only had two deep attempts. His EPA is likely much higher if he finishes the second attempt deep. One area where Purdy stood out was his ability to create. He missed two sacks and turned them into first downs, keeping the offense on the field.
Atlanta did a good job keeping Purdy at bay from a scrambling standpoint. He had no jamming meters.
Analyzing advanced stats, Purdy had the 8th highest on target percentage, but threw more often than usual.
A fourth sack and the first interception hurt Purdy’s rating. He’s a playmaker and the Niners are always in the game with Purdy under center. A team that can win when its quarterback throws two interceptions is a contender.
Christian McCaffrey had just seven races after coming away with a thigh injury. He came back, probably out of necessity. You can’t ignore the fumbles, which is why the grade is B+, but the runners ran well. McCaffrey had a success rate of 71.4%. James made a six-yard tackle.
Black had a great jump on his touchdown run and averaged 5.25 yards per carry. Black also recovered 61 of his 63 yards after contact while forcing two missed tackles. Jordan James and Kaelon Black had fumbles on consecutive plays.
Kyle Juszczyk made a great block to spring Black for his touchdown. Juszczyk played a big role in the 49ers’ rushing success, which is no surprise.
McCaffrey caught six of his seven receptions for 61 yards. James accepted his only pass for 11 yards. Juszczyk had a touchdown on his three targets.
It was the best black look of the entire season. But the fumble and a few drunken runs
Luke Farrell caught a first down and blocked well. George Kittle was everywhere, catching eight of his 19 targets for 88 yards, including 40 yards after the catch. Kittle fumbled to end the game. I was even more disappointed that he didn’t catch any of his contested catches.
Purdy targeted four wide receivers who weren’t on the roster, weren’t active or weren’t running routes in Week 1. Technically, the first interception was a target for Jacob Cowing, who caught a first down while the team was driving. Cowing caught his other two targets, totaling 38 yards. He was 1-for-2 in contested situations and adjusted well to lower throws. Cow behavior was not an issue in this match. It was open.
The same can’t be said for Brandin Cooks, who caught one of three targets. He turned a 3rd-and-4 into a 3rd-and-9. The Cooks fell short on third down.
He had another play where he went too far and almost hit Kittle for the second week in a row. The margin for error when targeting cooks is non-existent. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s released by the time the Niners take the field.
Jordan Watkins is cautiously optimistic going into this game.
Watkins made a great fingertip grab in the third quarter where he dove for a throw. Early in the fourth quarter, Watkins was wide open on a play that was overturned. If he gets hit in stride, it’s probably a touchdown.
On the first pass where Watkins didn’t complete the catch through the ground, it was a great release to get open, but you have to secure the catch. The same is true for his target in the end zone. Both were A+ throws that you have to reward your quarterback for.
If you simulate Watkins’ last two targets 100 times, he’ll probably catch it 97 times. Unfortunately, the Niners were on the wrong side in Atlanta.
Christian Kirk was not targeted, but he ran away from AJ Terrell on several crossing routes. On some plays he was open while Cooks struggled. He didn’t get the ball, but it was a promising start for Kirk. He only ran 14 routes but reached 20.42 miles per hour. The 49ers will rely on that speed moving forward.
Jake Brendel was beaten and Connor Colby saw the defender running right by him on the first sack of the game. Black didn’t do a good job of chipping either. The only other sack came on 4th-and-10, when the Falcons brought up six, Trent Williams assisted his defender and Purdy couldn’t get the ball out.
Connor Colby gave up 5 pressures. No one else had more than two. Purdy was pressured 6% below league average on 42 dropbacks.
McCaffrey and James each had 2.0 yards before contact. The running lanes were huge, especially early in the match. Colby’s call set the offense back. Trent had a false start on the first play. But the offensive line never seemed to stop the offense from moving the ball. They were once again pretty good, as they have been all season.
The group that has been punching above its weight class all season has finally come back down to earth. We were spoiled by defensive tackles who controlled the game. This was not the case in Atlanta.
Gracen Halton was invisible for the first time.
Sebastian Valdez’s only stat was a missed tackle.
Osa Odighizuwa has the same win rate as Kyle Shanahan, who tore Odighizuwa to the sideline after the veteran was offside on 4th-and-4.
Rookie James Thompson was the most active, with one pressure and two run stops. But, and it wasn’t his fault, a penalty gave Atlanta another set of downs on 3rd and 2.
Three edge rushers played more than 30 snaps: Romello Height (38), Keion White (35) and Mykel Williams (31). The top group had no tackles for loss. Mykel missed two tackles. He had pressure. Keion had two. Romello had none, but he and Williams both made running stops.
They turned back Bijan Robinson, who had only one run of 10+ yards, but they still moved the ball more than usual. Robinson had 19 yards before contact and Khalil Herbert had four on two carries.
It was the defensive line’s first real stinker of the season. That’s acceptable, but it doesn’t change the fact that it happened.
Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw combined for 25 tackles and only missed two. They also made 6 stops on the run. The problem was in the coverage.
Warner did his job. Jaden Dugger limited the damage, allowing 12 yards on four targets. The pre-snap move spoiled Greenlaw. He was constantly out of position and never gave himself a chance to compete. Greenlaw allowed seven receptions on eight targets for 64 yards, including three first downs.
It’s a shame, because they played well in the run game, and Dugger seemed more confident with each snap. None of the three generated a pass on nine attempts either.
The more we see of the cornerbacks, the less confidence there is. Upton Stout was active but served as more of an emergency player while nursing a shoulder injury.
When Ephesians rookie Prysock has to play, you know something hasn’t gone the way you want. After the game, Shanahan said it wasn’t part of the plan to play Prysock, but the team wanted to try something new.
The original plan was Ashytn Davis in the slot. He lasted seven snaps before giving up a six-yard catch. The defense then turned to Jack Jones, who quickly fell out of favor.
Jones received two penalties; the defense denied one and the other resulted in 20 yards for defensive pass interference. He gave up 24 yards on five targets. That doesn’t sound bad, but Jones is way too eye-catching for a coverage corner.
Renardo Green gave up all three of his targets for 41 yards. He also took a backbreaking penalty on 2nd and 20. Deommodore Lenoir only allowed two catches for 17 yards and made one run stop, but the coaching staff doesn’t seem to have confidence in any of them.
It’s a good thing when we don’t talk about security. Ji’Ayir Brown is happy with all the mishaps in this game, as he gets lost in the shuffle. Brown wasn’t good, and that’s not something you can say this season. He allowed all three of his targets to be completed for 26 yards. Brown also missed three tackles.
Malik Mustapha continues to look like one of the best players on that side of the ball. He always steals, limits damage in coverage, doesn’t miss a tackle and makes deep throws.
Corliss Waitman’s only punt was inside the 20 and a fair catch, but only traveled 37 yards.
Cowing was clearly instructed to catch everything as a punt returner. Each running back had a kickoff return of over 30 yards. They help the Niners get good field position, and that will prove useful as the season goes on.
Eddy Pineiro is a missed kick during a kicking competition. After All we discussed, if Pineiro scores an extra point, the best unit in the NFL could tie the game and send it to overtime.
I had no issues with Shanahan’s sequencing in this play. The running game was on and they fumbled. He leaned on McCaffrey early and Kittle late. The receivers were open. The offense gained 400 yards and scored touchdowns on two red zone possessions.
During the week, we suggested that Week 7 would be a “scheduled loss” for the 49ers. It happened like this. Still, it felt like this was the first time Raheem Morris wasn’t doing his best.
I have a few theories, and most of them go back to the franchise Morris coached at knew his pressures and tendencies and was ready for what was to come. Michael Penix faced the least pressure of any quarterback in Week 7. The plays and stunts we’re used to seeing from the defensive line didn’t work.
So far this season, the Niners put you behind the sticks and then can cover obvious passes. They’re banking on the opposing quarterback getting greedy and forcing a throw downfield. Penix did not. Instead, he willingly accepted the underhand throws.
Penix completed a 10-yard pass. One. Everything seemed easy because he truly took what the defense gave him. Morris was reluctant to adjust and become more aggressive until the last two practices, which is how we ended up with five practices in the red zone.
Gn sports
