To start looking for the Detroit Lions’ next opponent, I like to watch their most recent game. For the Carolina Panthers, that means checking their 21-18 loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3.
I took notes during the game and here are my top five takeaways on what this may mean for the Lions against the Panthers, along with some data to back up those observations.
The Panthers defense can get to the passer…but it has to be aggressive
Against the Browns, the Panthers posted a 38.5% pressure rate, but that dropped significantly when rushing down four. Here are their pressure rates in Week 3 with and without blitzes:
- Blitzing: 55.6% pressure rate (fourth highest), 2.76 seconds before pressure (29th)
- No blitz: 33.3% pressure rate (10th), 2.93 seconds before pressure (22nd)
When the Panthers aren’t sending extra blitzers, they generate their pressure using the speed of their edge rushers. Princely Umanmielen is second in pressure on the team, behind Jaelen Phillips, and his speed and command were on display against Cleveland. But the Lions faced two speed rushers last week against the Jets and held up very well.
That said, they have interior players with pass-rushing skills, including Derrick Brown (7.0 sacks last year). This could pose the biggest threat to Detroit’s young interior.
Bryce Young’s arm talent is a problem
Man, Bryce Young is fun to watch when you only look at arm talent. He can make any throw. And while it’s the deep shots that get the most national attention, I’m impressed with the throws he can make on the perimeter in tight windows. Just look at his passing chart against the Browns and how he used every inch of the boundary:
It takes a lot of skill to push that ball to the edge of the court, and he’s not afraid to do it.
He is also not afraid to express himself in depth. He currently has the most expected air yards per pass attempt in the league (10.2) and leads the league in passes over 20 air yards (17). Accuracy varies a bit, but there’s more good than bad there.
And while we’re talking about Young, his mobility is obviously something defenses need to be aware of. He can extend plays with his legs and his presence in the pockets is clearly improving. However, interestingly, he is much less likely to run and struggle. Against the Browns, he passed up several easy yard opportunities to go for the big play. For the season, he only attempted three carries for 16 yards and a touchdown.
Panthers’ standard running game struggled, but came to life late
For the season, the Panthers running game has been pretty ineffective. They rank 21st in DVOA, 23rd in EPA, and 23rd in pass rate.
However, they have the ability to wear teams down as the game continues. Against the Browns, Carolina had just 22 yards on 11 carries in three quarters. But in the final quarter, they ran the ball down Cleveland’s throat, totaling 76 yards on just 12 carries (6.3 YPC).
With a pair of bruised backs in Chuba Hubbard (6-foot-1, 210) and AJ Dillon (6-foot, 247), they can wear you out, but they’re not explosive. The Panthers’ longest run of the season was 24 yards by…Kenny Pickett. Running backs do not have a run of more than 16 yards.
Detroit may have to defend its four downs
Panthers head coach Dave Canales isn’t afraid to get a little aggressive on fourth down. Twice in the first half against the Browns, Carolina chose to punt near midfield. Here are the two opportunities:
- There are 8:38 left in the second quarter: 0-0 tie, fourth-and-3 from the Browns 43-yard line
- There are 3:40 left in the second quarter: 3-0 Browns, fourth and 1 at the Panthers 40 yard line
The Panthers failed in both attempts, which immediately led to two Browns goals and a 10-0 deficit. If Detroit can hold on on fourth down (the Lions currently haven’t stopped any of three fourth-down attempts), it could be a game-changer.
For the year, the Panthers are just 1 of 6 on fourth down. Last year, they attempted the second-most attempts in the NFL (40), converting 27 of them (67.5% conversion rate, fourth-best).
Panthers running defense perhaps better than expected
If you look at Carolina’s run defense stats throughout the season, they look horrible. They’ve allowed an NFL-high 5.7 yards per carry, 193.3 rushing yards per game, and they rank 23rd in run defense DVOA.
However, I think three things are happening: the data is influenced by a terrible Week 1 performance against the Bears, they are disproportionately hurt by mobile quarterbacks, and they also just made clear progress.
Against Chicago, the Panthers allowed 291 yards rushing and 7.5 yards per carry. It was a truly awful performance, led by D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, who combined for 224 yards and four touchdowns on 28 carries (8.0 YPC). The following week wasn’t great, but it was a marked improvement: allowing Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson to combine for 123 yards on 27 carries (4.6 YPC). Against the Browns, the Panthers allowed 132 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per carry, but Quinshon Judkins only managed 70 yards on 18 carries (3.9 YPC).
In total, of the 580 rushing yards allowed by the Panthers, 146 (more than 25%) came from the quarterbacks. This won’t be a problem this week.
Particularly when it came to needing their defense to stop the run, they did it. The Browns had a chance to put the game away late with just one first down to win it. Despite a second-and-2, the Panthers were able to get three straight stops on runs to give the offense one more shot. This is reflected in their overall completion rate allowed (35.6%), which is actually ninth best in the NFL.
Now, the Browns’ rushing attack (31st in DVOA) is far worse than the Bears’ (ninth) and Falcons’ (sixth), and the Lions have one of the best in the NFL (second). But I still think the early numbers skew a run defense that can hang.
Gn sports
