People walk in front of a sign to vote on November 1, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. Michigan has become a focal point in the upcoming midterm elections, with a tight race between Republican Senate candidate, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), and Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed that could decide who controls the chamber.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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Spencer Platt/Getty Images
It can be difficult to know what to focus on during the midterm elections. There are so many races, from gubernatorial and senatorial races to House and state legislatures. To get a better idea of how the night might play out in determining which party could control Congress, here are six things to watch:
1. The first indicators of Republican participation and the Latin American vote
Two states, Indiana and Kentucky, will see results at 6 p.m. ET. And then there’s Florida, which is split between the Eastern and Central time zones. But most of the state is on Eastern Time. So many House race results will come in at 7 p.m. ET, although statewide contests like Senate and gubernatorial races won’t be called until 8 p.m. ET at the earliest.
Some races to watch for early indicators of what might happen later tonight: Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, Kentucky’s 6th, and Florida’s 22nd and 27th. Indiana’s 5th and Kentucky’s 6th are Republican-held seats that are more competitive today than at the start of the cycle. If these are close or lean Democratic, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a larger Democratic wave.
Florida’s 22nd spot is held by a Democrat but redrawn to lean toward the Republicans. Trump won Florida’s 27th by a double-digit margin, so this heavily Latino district could be an indicator of how this key subgroup is voting.
2. Do Republicans get 46% with independents?
Independents are a key group, but they are also a low-propensity group to vote in the midterms.
Before the Trump era, Republicans needed to win over a larger share of independents. Mitt Romney, for example, won 55% of independents in 2012 but lost the presidential election. But there has been a political realignment in this country with white-collar voters turning to Trump, fewer people identifying as Democrats, and more educated white voters turning to Democrats.
So in the decade since Trump entered the political scene, Republicans have done well when they won at least 46 percent of independents. If they don’t, they’ve lost.
3. Black voter turnout in key states
The Michigan Senate race is important for control of the Senate. If Republicans reverse the situation, the magic number for Democrats increases from four to five, meaning Democrats would need to win five Republican-held seats to take control of the Senate.
For Abdul El-Sayed (D) to win in Michigan, the key will be black voters in Wayne County. If he scores in and around Detroit, he has a path to victory, but if he doesn’t, it becomes even more difficult – and that has been an area of vulnerability for him.
In the Trump era, Democrats needed 68% or more in Wayne County to win Michigan unless, like Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024, they managed to outperform in the suburbs.
Wayne County Democratic Margins
2024 Slotkin 63% win (11% share)
2024 Harris 62% loss
2020 Biden 68% victory (12%)
2020 Peters 68% win
2018 Stabenow 69% win (15%)
2016 Clinton 66% loss (13%)
4. The margin with young voters
Voters aged 18 to 29 see their participation drop significantly between the presidential elections and the midterm elections. In presidential elections since 1992, 43% of young registered voters have cast ballots. But midterm, this figure drops to 21%, or only 1 in 5 people who turn out to vote.
But they are essential to the Democrats’ success. Over the past 20 years, when Democrats have won this group by more than 20 points, they have done well, winning presidencies or making midterm gains. The only exception was 2022, but the strong margin Democrats gained among young voters that year arguably helped them stem what could have been a much larger Republican tide. That year, Democrats lost nine seats in the House, but gained one seat in the Senate.
Democratic margin with voters aged 18 to 29, election results
2024 +11, Trump wins the presidency
2022 +28, Republicans win the House, Democrats gain a Senate seat
2020 +25, Biden wins the presidency
2018 +35, Democrats win the House
2016 +19, Trump wins the presidency
2014 +11, Republicans expand their majority in the House and win the Senate
2012 +23, Obama is re-elected
2010 +17, Republicans win the House
2008 +34, Obama wins the presidency
2006 +22, Democrats win the House
5. In Texas, the key will be the difference between the vote totals of Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Ken Paxton (R) – and the Latino vote in South Texas.
Given past polling errors in Texas that have underestimated the Republican vote, there is healthy skepticism that Democrat James Talarico’s margin of error in polling averages is enough to win.
There was a lot of enthusiasm in 2018 for Beto O’Rourke’s (D) candidacy against an unpopular Republican senator in Ted Cruz, but Cruz still won, albeit by less than 3 percentage points. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and no Texas Democrat has been elected to the Senate in 38 years.
For that to actually happen in this state where Trump won by 14 points in 2024, two groups are essential: Republicans and Latinos. Ken Paxton (right) is unpopular. Republican Gov. Greg Abbot also faces a tight race, but is believed to be in better shape than Paxton. In 2018, Cruz won about 400,000 fewer votes than Abbott, but Cruz still won by more than 200,000 votes. So see if the difference between Abbott and Paxton is more than 400,000 for Talarico.
Voters cast their ballots in Anchorage, Alaska on November 1, 2026.
Christian Moorman/AFP via Getty Images
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Christian Moorman/AFP via Getty Images
The second part of Talarico’s path to victory runs through South Texas. Statewide, O’Rourke won 64% of Latinos in 2018, and they made up 26% of the electorate, according to exit polls. If Talarico is north of both, that’s how he wins the seat. Talarico should improve on O’Rourke’s totals in these high Latino counties: Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51%. As a bonus, watch the fast-growing and highly populated Dallas suburbs – Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51%.
6. Identification of the parties
Due to political realignment during the Trump era, look at how people identify themselves in exit polls.
The percentage of those who identify as Democrats reached its lowest level in 2024, at 31%. This trend is occurring as the Democratic Party’s base has become more liberal and more dissatisfied with its own leadership. This year, however, Democrats were among the most enthusiastic, according to the latest NPR poll, but they will likely need a share much higher than 31 percent of the electorate to succeed.
Democrats as percentage of the electorate
2024 31%
2022 33%
2020 37%
2018 37%
2016 37%
2014 35%
2012 38%
2010 39%
2008 39%
That’s entirely possible given that opposition to Trump in this election is extremely high: 53 percent of likely voters in the latest NPR poll said they strongly disapprove of the job he’s doing. This will most likely be a unifying force for the left in this election. As the saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Along these lines, it will be important to watch races like the Michigan Senate race and the race for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, both of which have very progressive Democratic candidates trying to win in the purple spots. Democratic unity – and the ideological future of the party – will be a key element of the 2028 presidential primary and could define the American left for years to come.
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