If you looked at polling, ad spending, campaign messages, early voting turnout and historical midterm trends, you had a feeling Tuesday would be a good night for Democrats.
All indicators showed that voters wanted to punish President Donald Trump for his tariffs and his war in Iran. And because the only way Americans could do that was to vote against Trump’s party, the Republicans ended the night losing. at least seven seats in the Senate and dozens of seats in the House.
Yet Republicans, believing they would achieve better results than those in 2016, 2020 and 2024, erred in believing that everything was fine. In fact, some were so confident that they made wild predictions that the party would retain its majority in Congress.
These predictions were absurd before the election, but they’re even more hilarious to watch today.
Here are seven dire predictions from the cycle:
1. Mike Johnson, future former Speaker of the House of Representatives
Johnson made this prediction on October 29 during an appearance on Fox News:
“Hakeem Jeffries is not going to have a run for president, because the Republicans are going to win. I will be the speaker in the next Congress. I will swear in some of these people who ran for Congress as Marxists, unfortunately. We will see what happens, but he will have to run. Hakeem wants to remain the leader of the Democrats. He will be the minority leader if he wins, but they will hold him hostage for all kinds of reasons. It’s a a taste of what’s to come for the Democratic Party.”
It turns out that Johnson will not will swear in all members – and he won’t even have a leadership role in the next Congress.
2. Trump chief of staff Susie Wiles and political consultant Chris LaCivita
The Daily Mail published an article about the chaos at the White House on Election Day. Tucked into the article is this gem about what Wiles and LaCivita told Trump before Election Day:
As recently as September, the source said, Wiles was directly telling people that Republicans were going to win the midterm elections.
The source also described weekly Thursday briefings in which veteran GOP political consultant Chris LaCivita, a key Wiles ally, would promise the president that victory was his.
As of Tuesday morning, West Wing staffers were still talking about the possibility of winning seats in both chambers.
“Delusional,” the source said. “They were delirious until the very end.”
3. James Blair, Trump’s political advisor
Blair was one of the masterminds behind Republicans’ efforts to force their way to a majority in the House. And after the end of the gerrymandering wars, he wrote this in May in an article on
Well, as of press time, it appears that only one Democratic-held district that Blair helped target in the mid-decade shakeups has been flipped.
In fact, the gerrymander passed by North Carolina appears to be a false mandate, with Democrats winning. more seats in the state than they had under the old map.
After Tuesday’s election, House Democrats mocked Blair’s old tweet.
4. Ed Martin, Trump’s former pardon lawyer
“53 and 219,” Martin wrote in an article on X, referring to Republicans winning 53 seats in the Senate and 219 in the House. “Take it to the bank.”
I wonder how much he lost on that bet!
5. Republican Rep. Max Miller of Ohio
“Texas is turning blue like I’m losing my seat,” New York Times reporter Annie Karni texted in July, when she asked him about the state of his race after he was accused of domestic violence.
“You’re better than that,” he added.
Well, Miller lost and Texas went blue up and down the ballot.
6. George Santos, former New York representative
“For all the panickers… This is a shot in the arm in the Senate, I’m sure,” Santos, the disgraced former Republican congressman, wrote just after 10 a.m. ET on Election Day.
He also made this promise: “If Ohio turns blue for the gubernatorial and senatorial race, I’m dressing in drag and taking a cold plunge! Bookmark this!”
I guess we’ll have a show.
7. Prediction Markets
All media outlets using betting sites to influence their election predictions should be named and shamed.
Punters on morally bankrupt sites like Polymarket, where you can bet on sick things like military strikes in Iran, know nothing other than the vibe they get from reading the news and social media. For example, Kalshi bettors did not predict races correctly. And they probably lost a lot of money too.
Let’s cut to the chase: The financial challenges Daily Kos is facing this year are difficult.
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Gn world
