‘A Better Deal’: What’s Behind Trump’s Rejection of Iran’s Truce Offer? | Explanatory news

Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as experts say the US president believes Washington has more to gain by waiting than by accepting Tehran’s terms for now.

“I reject their proposal,” Trump told reporters Saturday, arguing that Iran wanted a deal because it was “losing so much.”

“They want to make a deal, and I think that’s great,” Trump said. “I too would like to make a deal. But this deal would not be acceptable.”

On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had seen Trump’s initial reaction to his proposal but had not yet received a response through mediators. In the latest diplomatic efforts, Qatar played a mediating role in talks between Iran and the United States on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York.

The seven-day Iranian proposal included Washington lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports, lifting sanctions on Iranian oil sales, releasing about $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets and observing a broader regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon and Yemen.

Iran would then reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations with Washington on a final agreement.

The latest proposals are similar to the June memorandum of understanding signed by the two countries. But the memorandum of understanding collapsed last month due to differences over the terms of the agreement, which led to an escalation of attacks, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz, which remains mostly under Iranian blockade.

Experts say Trump’s rejection suggests that while both sides continue to publicly leave the door open to diplomacy, they remain far apart on the question of who should make the first concessions.

“Trump’s calculation seems quite simple. He thinks the combination of naval blockade and economic isolation ends up squeezing Iran hard enough that Tehran’s latest proposal is a show of weakness rather than an offer that Washington must take up,” Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.

His public argument that Iran is “losing badly” is important because it suggests he believes time improves the United States’ negotiating position, Krieg said.

Why does Trump think he can wait?

A key element of Trump’s calculus appears to be the belief that economic pressure on Iran has not yet run its course.

The Trump administration has stepped up economic pressure on Tehran, strengthening its naval blockade while imposing sanctions targeting Iranian oil revenues and threatening secondary sanctions against countries doing business with Tehran.

Last week, the United States imposed air sanctions on Iran, disrupting flights. This came weeks after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an economic pressure campaign against Iran, promising to target Tehran’s financial interests across the world.

Richard Weitz, a nonresident research associate at the NATO Defense College, told Al Jazeera that the White House might believe it can “wait a little bit and get a better deal.”

Washington is also concerned about Iran’s proposed sequencing, he added.

Therefore, Weitz said Washington could calculate that “economic pressure over time will cause the Iranian government to make more concessions.”

“This is what happened probably ten years ago, leading up to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, when the Iranian government decided that it (the United States) had to end economic sanctions in exchange for concessions on its nuclear program,” he added.

It is therefore possible that “we will see the same kind of compromises in the months to come”.

Iran could make Trump “pay”

However, waiting for a deal also carries considerable political risk for the US president, experts say, as his Republican Party could lose the November midterm elections.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll from late August suggested that 63 percent of Americans opposed the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, while 31 percent supported it. Rising fuel and transportation costs could also add to broader concerns about the cost of living ahead of the election.

The problem for Trump is that time isn’t just increasing pressure on Iran, Krieg said. “The bet is that time works both ways,” he stressed.

As the midterms approach, Trump does not want to appear to be lifting the blockade, lifting oil sanctions and releasing Iranian assets simply to regain access to a waterway that Iran itself has disrupted, Krieg said.

“But each additional week also means rising energy prices, continued military exposure and increasing pressure on Gulf partners. »

The much-needed closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted oil and gas flows from Gulf countries, which rely on energy exports to finance their budgets.

Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute of Higher Studies, told Al Jazeera that the Iranian proposal could be seen as “a kind of bone-breaking move to Trump” by offering a potential path to lower oil and gas prices before the vote.

However, Iran could decide “to make Trump pay for refusing the proposal and the increased economic pressure the country is under”, he told Al Jazeera.

“They may decide that now is the time to step up their efforts…as the midterm elections approach.”

The Republican Party is not doing well in the polls and a number of its candidates are “distancing themselves” from Trump, he noted. Polls indicate that the Republicans could lose their slim majority in the US Congress.

It’s not just the Iranians who are under severe economic pressure due to the U.S. naval blockade and ongoing sanctions, “it’s also the Trump administration,” Elmasry said.

Trump’s wait for more Iranian concessions could ‘backfire’

Trump “wants Tehran to reopen Hormuz without Washington paying the full economic and political price that Iran is currently demanding,” Krieg said.

“The danger is that he confuses Iranian pain with the Iranian desire to capitulate. They are not the same thing.”

Iran is undoubtedly under pressure. Krieg said the sanctions and blockade are “biting,” which is precisely why Tehran needs a deal.

But additional pressure does not necessarily lead to additional concessions.

Iran could instead increase the costs of conflict for its adversaries, Krieg said, notably through the Strait of Hormuz, regional infrastructure and potentially Bab al-Mandeb, another strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa.

In recent weeks, Bab al-Mandeb’s strategic clout has increased significantly after the Iran-aligned Houthis expanded their control over Yemen’s Red Sea coast.

The advance effectively gave the Houthis unrestricted access to the narrow waterway, a worrying development for global shipping given the group’s track record of targeting ships, including vessels linked to Israel, in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

The Houthis have already declared a naval blockade against Saudi ships in the Red Sea, which Riyadh has begun using as an alternative shipping route to Hormuz for its oil exports.

“So this can backfire,” Krieg warned. “Trump thinks Iran’s clock is ticking faster than America’s. Tehran thinks the opposite: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, global energy markets and, ultimately, Trump himself have less tolerance for prolonged disruption than Iran has for economic sanctions.”

Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, also told Al Jazeera that Tehran may now be “less worried about overestimating its situation than underestimating its situation.”

According to Harrison, Tehran now views the risk of escalation as less costly than agreeing to something prematurely or appearing willing to compromise, particularly after Washington’s response to the proposal.

In an interview with Al Jazeera broadcast on Saturday, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian said his country no longer had confidence in negotiations with Washington after attacks during previous rounds of negotiations followed by sanctions.

“We have no confidence in the American side and we do not know on what basis an agreement can be reached with them,” Pezeshkian said.

Tehran is betting “strongly” on the weather

U.S. analyst Harrison noted that Tehran was likely “not at all surprised” by Trump’s rejection and saw the offer in part as a way to demonstrate to the Iranians and the American public that it remained willing to negotiate.

Experts said Tehran understands that the US president wants an exit he can present as a victory.

“Iran is betting a lot on time. … Its strategy is to keep the pressure high enough so that it eventually returns to negotiations, while making this exit progressively more costly,” Krieg said.

“The Iranian calculus is essentially this: Don’t give Trump the deal cheaply when he might need it even more in several weeks or months. »

Harrison said the Iranian offer was a “show of goodwill” intended to demonstrate Iran’s willingness to negotiate to both its domestic and American audiences.

According to Krieg, “prolongation” of the conflict was “the most likely outcome.”

“Both sides need a deal, but both currently believe that waiting will improve the deal they get,” he added.