Anyone who has hiked its rugged coastline or skied its mountains knows that Maine can be windy.
But right now, Maine’s Senate race seems a little isolated from the policy winds – which otherwise seem to favor the Democrats – at least enough to keep incumbent Republican Susan Collins in a tied race with the democrat Troy Jackson in a state that otherwise has a Democratic-leaning electorate.
Collins attracts enough voters and enough Maine Democrats, while she is supported by those who say they vote more on state issues than national issues, to keep the race tied.
And she has an advantage over who would bring more federal funds to Maine.
Jackson’s challenge is that Collins eliminates one in five voters who disapprove by Trump – a rate higher than that achieved by Republican congressional candidates nationally.
Jackson’s support, in turn, is driven by those who think Collins agrees too much with President Trump, as well as voters specifically opposed to tariffs, by those trying to give national Democrats control of the Senate and by those who prioritize change on experience.
A full 10% of voters say they could still change their minds — another dynamic that underscores that it could still fail one way or the other.
Even when voters think Jackson’s Whether these policies would improve their financial situation also gets Collins’ approval from nearly one in five voters.
Overall, Maine voters believe Trump’s policies have hurt Maine’s economy. Jackson wins most of those who do.
But long service doesn’t count entirely against Collins, even if it’s an “anti-incumbent” year: Collins performs especially well among voters who say they’ve voted for her multiple times in the past.
Jackson may be feeling the effects of primary season: Four in ten Democrats and most independents would like someone else to be the Democratic nominee.
Jackson is also running behind Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hannah Pingree, as Pingree’s lead in the gubernatorial race falls much closer to the state’s overall partisan leaning. (Kamala Harris won the state.) Pingree is getting some of the voters who split their tickets to support Collins.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted among a representative sample of 1,114 registered voters in Maine surveyed between September 23 and October 1, 2026. The sample was weighted for gender, age, race and education based on data from the U.S. Census, as well as the 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±4.7 points for registered voters.
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