In January, the Diamondbacks acquired Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals in hopes that he would provide stability for the veteran at the hot corner as they headed toward a Wild Card run. Of course, that didn’t happen, but that’s not Arenado’s fault. The 35-year-old ended up having a decent comeback campaign after a prolonged offensive slump from 2023 to 2025 with the Cardinals.
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk broke down Arenado’s strong start earlier this year. Through the end of May, he was hitting .269/.350/.451 over 200 plate appearances, with a 19.0% strikeout rate and 9.0% walk rate, both better than average, as well as a 121 wRC+. Over a full season, that would have been Arenado’s highest mark since 2022, when he finished third in the NL MVP standings, behind his then-teammate. Paul Goldschmidt and the Padres Manny Machado.
Naturally, Arenado followed that strong start with his worst month of the season in June. He made 106 trips to the plate, but hit just .196/.255/.299 en route to a 53 wRC+, meaning he was 47% worse than the average hitter. This reduced his overall production to a below-average 97 wRC+, and it looked like Arenado was set to continue his long-term decline.
He rebounded somewhat in July and August, but with low batting averages and relying on his power more than usual. By the end of August, Arenado was hitting .238/.312/.429 overall and back up to 103 wRC+. It was certainly better than his 84 wRC+ with St. Louis in 2025, but it felt more like a slight late-career rebound than a true return to form. Injuries may have played a role in this. Arenado underwent an MRI for a torso injury in mid-August, but ultimately missed only two days.
Let’s just say that September was very nice to him. As the Diamondbacks tried to hold on to the Wild Card, Arenado turned on the jets and started hitting like a woodpecker. Aaron judges. He’s hit .349/.432/.723 over his last 95 plate appearances and has hit nine of his 30 home runs this season. Arizona’s season ended with the Phillies winning against Tampa Bay in Game 162, while Arenado finished with a .255/.331/.475 overall line, 86 RBIs, a 20.0% strikeout rate, an 8.7% walk rate, and a 120 wRC+. FanGraphs credited him with 3.5 wins above replacement for his efforts.
Arenado is under contract for next year at a $15 million salary, as reported in our Payroll Tracker. Arizona only has to pay $6 million of that amount, while the Cardinals get the rest. It would be a blessing for the Diamondbacks if Arenado could continue his renaissance in 2027 at such an affordable price. The team should reduce payroll while adding first base, DH and probably the rotation as well. Keeping Arenado healthy and productive for his age-36 season would ensure third base isn’t added to the list of needs.
There are some warning signs beneath the surface. Despite the rebound in wRC+, Arenado hit career lows in average exit velocity (85.2 mph) and hard hit rate (31.2%). These measures rank in the third and 14th percentiles, respectively, according to Statcast. Meanwhile, Arenado’s expected batting average of .231 was well below his actual mark of .255, and so was his power output. He hit .475 overall, but xSLG placed his true ability around .366, right in line with 2025.
Arenado wasn’t hitting the ball hard and he was also noticeably happier than usual. He shot 52.2% of balls in play, up from 44.7% in 2025. Perhaps he was trying to avoid the decline in bat speed by swinging earlier and pulling the ball rather than going all-pitch, as he did earlier in his career. Regardless, Arenado has done a lot of damage against fastballs (+13 Run Value), sliders (+7), and sinkers (+4) this year, but he has struggled against sweepers (-4).
A look at Arenado’s Statcast page shows an awful lot of blue. He graded above average in strikeout value (+23) and strikeout rate (20.0%, which is a career high). It was rated around average in terms of odor rating and negatively for everything else. With these kinds of questions in his hitting profile, it’s likely that Arenado’s extreme variances in actual and expected power will normalize next year, and Arenado won’t be able to fully repeat his 2026 performance.
At a minimum, he remains a capable third-down defender. While no longer the perennial Gold Glove threat he was during his peak in Colorado, Arenado was still worth +2 outs above average at the hot corner this year. Defensive runs recorded weren’t as optimistic, valuing him at -4, while Statcast still placed him in the 61st percentile of defensive runs value.
The D-backs hope Arenado ages more gracefully than he appeared during his 2023-25 swoon. If he can hit somewhere between those numbers and this year’s box rebound while fielding a competent third baseman, he’ll still be a decent value for the Diamondbacks as they look to retool in 2027.
Photo courtesy of Denis Poroy, Imagn Images
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