A storm is likely to form in the Gulf this week despite El Niño. Here are the first scenarios
A tropical depression or storm has a high chance of forming in the Gulf this week and breathing life back into the end of an Atlantic hurricane season crushed by El Niño.
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The Gulf is often a hotbed for late-season storms. Precisely, the chances are increasing that an area of stormy weather fester in the Gulf’s Bay of Campeche will develop into one by midweek, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The next storm name in the Atlantic is Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs).
Exactly where the storm might head or how strong it might reach has yet to be determined.
Gulf water is record warm for this time of year, started to generate and help strengthen any system. But the overall strength of this potential storm could be limited by less favorable atmospheric conditions.
Whatever its ultimate fate, heavy rains are a concern across the Gulf Coast and other parts of the South late this week.
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Scenario 1: A tropical depression or storm forms, moves north, but weakens or even collapses before reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast. Heavy rain would be the only significant threat in this outcome.
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Scenario 2: A tropical system fails to form, but moisture in the atmosphere still fuels showers in states bordering the central and eastern Gulf.
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Scenario 3: Tropical Storm Isaias forms, tracks north, and makes landfall on the Gulf Coast, bringing high winds and storm surge in addition to heavy rain. This scenario would be the most impactful outcome, although Isaias would likely remain below hurricane strength.
All three scenarios are still possible, but it seems more likely that a tropical system will form for at least some time.
As this year has already shown, a hurricane-force system need not have significant consequences, especially in a world that is warming and making tropical systems wetter.
Tropical Storms Arthur and Edward did not last long, but their heavy rains led to significant flash flooding and water rescues. Parts of Louisiana and Mississippi were hardest hit by Arthur’s flooding, while Edward dropped more than 20 inches of rain in East Texas.
Parts of Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi are most at risk from heavy rains from this system. Showers could begin to intensify along the coast as early as Friday, then continue to flood the region while seeping further inland throughout the weekend.
Several inches of rain could fall, but it is too early to determine which locations might see the most and experience flash flooding.
What is typical in October and November
Four named storms – tropical force or greater – typically form in October and November, but some hurricane seasons can have a stronger end while others calm down.
The last few years illustrate this ebb and flow from one year to the next. Seven storms formed in October and November 2024, but only two formed during the same period in 2023.
Late-season storms tend to form closer to the United States, including in the Gulf, Caribbean and off the Southeast coast, making them more likely to impact land.
Although storms are generally less numerous, they can still be destructive.
Last year, Category 5 Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica during the last week of October.
Hurricane Michael slammed into the Florida Panhandle on October 10, 2018, becoming the last Category 5 hurricane on record in the United States. And Hurricane Sandy is perhaps the most notorious of all: it transformed into a hybrid superstorm in late October 2012 and hit the East Coast.
Super El Niño’s hold on the Atlantic basin means a repeat of the famous late-season hurricanes is less likely this year. Its damaging winds are the main reason this season could be hurricane-free for the first time according to reliable records.
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