Abdul El-Sayed’s Chances of Beating Mike Rogers: What the Latest Michigan Polls Show

The latest midterm polls point to a competitive Michigan Senate race, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed having an edge over Republican Mike Rogers. Voters in the Great Lakes State and across the country are heading to the polls to decide the balance of power in Congress.

Democrat El-Sayed, a former public health official, faces Republican Mike Rogers, a former state representative and senator for the crucial Senate seat.

El-Sayed led in all recent polls, although the size of his advantage varied widely among pollsters: by 11 percentage points in one poll. New York Times/Siena survey released Sunday, trailing just one point in an October Insider Advantage poll.

Some of El-Sayed’s leads were also within the margins of error of the respective polls.

Michigan has become one of the most contested battlegrounds in the country, supporting Donald Trump in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump again in 2024. Trump won the state by about 1.4 percentage points in 2024, while Democrat Elissa Slotkin won her other Senate seat by less than a point that year.

More than 1.8 million Michigan residents have already voted early, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.

Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers: what the latest polls show

Although El-Sayed led in all recent surveys, his advantage varied widely among pollsters and was within the margin of error in some of them.

Among the most recent was a Poll Vault/Emerson survey, conducted October 31 to November 1, which found 51 percent support for El-Sayed and 45 percent for Rogers. It was conducted among 500 likely voters and had a margin of error of 4.4%, according to RealClearPolitics.

A AtlasIntel survey placed El-Sayed at 54 percent and Rogers at 46 percent. The survey was conducted among 1,316 likely voters between October 28 and November 1, with a margin of error of 3 points.

A New York Times/Siena, released Sunday, gave El-Sayed the clearest lead compared to other recent polls, putting the Democrat ahead by 11 points, 53 to 42.

The survey was conducted among 1,011 voters on cellphones and landlines from October 23 to November 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

A YouGov survey of 2,093 likely voters conducted online October 26-29 placed El-Sayed at 51 percent support and Rogers at 47 percent support. There was a 3 point margin of error.

El-Sayed received 49 percent support and Rogers 42 percent in a CNN poll released Thursday. The survey was conducted among 768 likely voters from October 20 to 27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.

Meanwhile, Insider Advantage gave El-Sayed a much narrower lead of just one point, well within the poll’s 2.8-point margin of error. El-Sayed had 47 percent, Rogers 46 percent and was conducted among 1,200 likely voters Oct. 21-22.

A previous Marist poll conducted October 15-18 showed El-Sayed leading 50 to 48 percent among 1,185 registered voters, with a margin of error of 4.3 points.

The RealClearPolling average, which includes surveys not shown in this article, gives El-Sayed a 5.3 point lead, from Tuesday morning.

Prediction markets are more bullish on El-Sayed. Polymarket and Kalshi traders give him an 81% chance of winning on Tuesday morning.

Electoral analyzers, however, seem less confident. Cook Political Report ranks the Michigan Senate race as Lean Democratic, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball ranks it as Lean Democratic and Inside Elections places it in the Tilt Democratic category.

Why Michigan matters in the Senate battle

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning the Democratic Party will need a net gain of four seats to take control. An El-Sayed victory would allow Democrats to defend their seat as they target other Republican-held battlegrounds, including Maine, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio. A Rogers victory would give the Republican Party an added advantage and force Democrats to play catch-up elsewhere.

Taken together, the latest polls suggest El-Sayed heads into Election Day in the lead. But vastly different margins and several close results leave Rogers with a plausible path to victory without offering any guarantees on the final outcome.

Contact Newsweek editors about this story: Daniel Orton And James Debens

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Update, 3/11/26 at 5:45 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information about the survey.