It’s not my favorite situation to see the Guardians overcome a significant deficit two years in a row to win the AL Central, only to meet their division rival in the playoffs a week later. But here we are. Hopefully the results will be more in Cleveland’s favor this time around.
The White Sox won the season series 7-6, with 11 of those games decided by three runs or fewer and six by a single run. Two games went to extra innings. Expect this series to be hard-fought and likely last five games.
For the season, the White Sox were 5th in MLB with 104 wRC+, the Guardians were 20th in MLB with 97 wRC+, the White Sox were 20th in MLB with -4.1 base runs above average, the Guardians were eighth in base runs above average at 5.2, the White Sox were 14th in defense at -14.3, the Guardians were eighth in defense at -7.3, the White Sox were 26th in starting pitcher ERA at 4.60 (4.41 FIP), the Guardians were 9th in starting pitcher ERA at 3.93 (3.89 FIP), the White Sox had the eighth best bullpen ERA at 3.70 (4.10 FIP), and the Guardians had the sixth best bullpen ERA at 3.54 (3.70 FIP).
Based on these overall numbers, I think it’s clear that if the Guardians can control the White Sox hitters from distance, they should have an advantage. But that is of course a big “if” and a big “should”. Anything can happen in a short playoff series, especially against a division rival you know very well.
The Guardians will start Parker Messick in game one and Gavin Williams in game two. This will allow Messick to start Game 4 and Williams to start Game 5. I suspect the team will go with Cantillo and an opener in Game 3, but we’ll have to wait and see. The White Sox will start reliever Hagen Smith and likely go to Davis Martin as the big guy after 2-3 innings in Game 1, then start Sean Burke in Game 2 and Anthony Kay in Game 3 (they like openers, so there may be one for each game). It will be key for the Guardians to access the White Sox starters/loose guys for some carries, as Chicago’s bullpen is formidable.
Big Questions for the series:
Rest or repetitions?
The White Sox enter the series having demolished the Astros. Of course, this required them to dedicate even more innings to their bullpen arms. Grant Taylor’s 86 innings are almost double the number of innings he’s thrown in 2024-25 combined, Sean Newcomb threw 92 innings total last season and is now at 92 with the next out he gets and hadn’t pitched near that amount since 2018…there’s reason to believe that this wear and tear will eventually trickle down to a good Sox bullpen. Sean Burke’s 176 innings are by far a career high for him (as is also the case for Parker Messick, of course). Meanwhile, Cleveland has to worry about how they will have maintained their sharpness with 5-6 days off, as is always the case with MLB teams that get a bye through the wild card.
Who fills the circle of trust?
This year hasn’t been Hunter Gaddis’ best year and Tim Herrin has often struggled to throw strikes. This leaves some important questions in the background of the Guardians’ bullpen. You have to feel good about Cade Smith and Erik Sabrowski, but you also have to be aware of overextending either pitcher/giving the White Sox too many looks in a short period of time. Hunter Gaddis’ ability to rediscover the pitcher he was from 2024 through 2025 and into the first half of September will be key to this team’s ability to survive the days to come. Will Vogt be willing to give high-leverage reps to Daniel Espino, Foster Griffin, Slade Cecconi and even Tanner Bibee? Should he be willing? I think that’s the biggest question mark for our guards.
How long do you ride horses?
To follow up on the previous question, there has already been a lot of talk about the tendency of managers to eliminate starters before they get to the “third time in the order penalty”. TTTOP is a real thing and I think managers get too much pushback for addressing relievers when starters start to lose their best assets in a short playoff run… but with the Guardians’ bullpen being thin, I hope Vogt does everything in his power to get Messick and Williams, if they pitch well, through six innings. Even if they are scored, fans should prepare to forgive Vogt as there is a decent possibility that Messick and Williams facing TTTOP are preferable to Vogt’s fifth-sixth inning options out of the bullpen. Once you get to the seventh, however, Vogt should be ready to deploy Sabrowski and Smith without hesitation (which one depends on their position in the White Sox batting order).
How quickly do you seek the peloton advantage?
That question is already on Vogt’s mind with the news that the White Sox are still, as expected, relying on early games. Does Vogt respond by putting David Fry and potentially Rhys Hoskins in the lineup? Will he then lift both if Davis Martin enters in the third inning and runs the risk of exposing Nathaniel Lowe to tough lefties late in the game with no bench help behind him? Vogt received a lot of criticism for his early strikes against Detroit last playoffs, but, in my opinion, he had the opportunity to attempt a knockout blow and decided to take the risk to take the lead. I think it’s still a justifiable decision…but the import should be based on making sure your best hitters stay in the lineup as long as possible.
Which team’s young players are ready for the playoff spotlight?
In what should set us up for a fun few years ahead as AL Central fans (once MLB sorts out their labor issues), the Guardians are the tenth youngest team in MLB and the White Sox are the 15th youngest, with both teams buoyed by the performance of rookies/2nd year players. This first taste of postseason baseball may be a shock to the system. How much does it help people like Brayan Rocchio, Chase DeLauter and Angel Martinez to have some of that experience under their belt? How much does it help the White Sox players to have the Wildcard games behind them and the nerves that may have accompanied those contests?
Sean Burke vs. Guardians hitters: Burke has a 1.04 ERA in 17 innings against Cleveland this season. If this continues, one would expect the White Sox to steal Game 2 from Cleveland, given the off day will allow Burke to start that day. The Guardians will have to find a way to steal a point or two from Burke to give Gavin Williams a chance of finding them a victory.
Cade Smith vs. White Sox hitters: Smith has a 4.32 ERA/5.04 FIP against Chicago this season. This is probably a small sample size, but I’m here to tell you that if something like this continues to be a trend, the Guardians will be going home in no time.
Jose Ramirez rebound against Munetaka Murakami rebound: Ramirez and Murakami have had lengthy injury absences this season, during which their respective teams have persevered. Both returned diminished versions of themselves… Jose posted a 111 wRC+ before his injury (with much better stats expected) and Murakami posted a 158 wRC+ before his injury. When they returned, Ramirez had a 66 wRC+ and Murakami had a 107 wRC+. If either of them ends up with some of the early season magic returning after a few days off, it could be a huge factor in their respective team’s progression.
Ramirez, Chase DeLauter, Jo Adell, Angel Martinez, David Fry and Austin Hedges against White Sox lefties: Adell has a 206 wRC+ against LHP with the Guardians, DeLauter 138, Martinez 129, Jose 128, Fry 120 since August 1 and Hedges 114 overall. The White Sox are going to throw a lot of good lefties at the Guardians to attack their left-handed hitter-heavy roster. If these six show anything like what they did in 2026 against lefties, I like Cleveland’s chances of heading to the ALCS.
Randal Grichuk against the Guardians LHP: Grichuk had a 204 wRC+ against Guardians left-handed pitchers this season. To which my response is… “So low?” The Goals apparently opted to keep Stuart Fairchild rather than go out and get Grichuk when he was available during the season. Will this decision come back to haunt them in the playoffs like it did in the regular season? If that’s the case, the White Sox will get their revenge.
The Guardians will win this series if…
Messick and Williams are the best versions of themselves, Gaddis and Herrin are not disasters, and Chase DeLauter, Steven Kwan and Angel Martinez remain three of the best hitters in MLB as they have been for the second half of the 2026 season. For once, I don’t think the Keepers HAVE to have the best version of Jose moving forward… which is fine… but a good Jose would also go a long way to helping.
The White Sox will win this series if….
Burke and their relief pitchers are holding up against their huge usage rates and they continue to find moments of magic from the likes of Randal Grichuk, Tristan Peters (18 pitches-AB to Gavin Williams, yo) and Chase Meidroth.
The ALDS schedule between the Guardians and the White Sox (TBS/TruTV and HBOMax):
Saturday, October 3 – 1 p.m. ET
Monday October 5 – 5 p.m. ET
Wednesday October 7 – 4 p.m. ET
Thursday, October 8 – 5 p.m. ET (if there is only one game that day, it will be moved to 8 p.m.) *if necessary
Saturday, October 10 – 5 p.m. ET (if there is only one game that day, it will be moved to 8 p.m.) *if necessary
Glossary: Remember that wRC+ is a comprehensive measure of run production where 100 is league average. Defense is FanGraphs’ calculation of wins above replacement level based on defensive predictions.
FIP is ERA if you remove the effects of defense behind a pitcher.
What are we thinking, Guardians fans? How do you see the evolution of this series and what are your keys to a victory in Cleveland?
Gn sports
