The Nebraska football program is facing a major setback.
While Oregon and Indiana might fall under the SEC classification of “loss of quality,” the Washington game was anything but. The game followed a similar storyline to the previous two losses, except Washington doesn’t have the talent of Indiana or Oregon. Nebraska held every advantage, but the Huskers offense managed just seven points on meaningful play.
Now, Nebraska faces an Illinois team on the rise. The Fighting Illini have won three straight games, including a victory over Oregon. Nebraska is just 2-4 against Bret Bielema, who, of course, ruined Nebraska’s Big Ten debut in 2011. Illinois is a well-coached team, which is kryptonite for Matt Rhule and his team. However, Illinois has some vulnerabilities that Nebraska could perhaps exploit.
The cooling of Anthony Colandrea
Anthony Colandrea has been a great addition to the Huskers. His dual-threat play helped the Huskers win games and gave them a strong chance to beat Indiana. However, his passing was difficult during the losing streak. He completed less than 60% of his passes in those three games.
Game on Paper ranks its EPA by decline 81st in the country. His success rate is slightly better, at 63rd overall. While its stats are near the middle of the pack in college football, Nebraska needs to rely less on the passing game. The Huskers currently rank 4th in the Big Ten in pass attempts per game. Colandrea has been better in the first half than the second half this season.
A fast start could help the Huskers beat the Illini. Illinois’ pass defense ranks 123rd in EPA per pass rush. Nebraska should be able to complete passes against this defense.
An old enemy in a new home
Like Nebraska, Illinois added a veteran quarterback from the portal this offseason: ECU transfer Katin Houser. He already started against Nebraska and won. Houser was Michigan State’s quarterback in 2023 when the Spartans beat the Huskers 20-17 in East Lansing.
He was a good passer in 2026 but missed one game due to injury. He ranks 34th in the country in EPA per dropback and 16th in passing rate. Like Colandrea, he is much stronger in the first half, although he is even heavier in the first half. He ranks in the 93rd percentile for EPA per play in the first half, but drops to the 42nd percentile in the second half. For a Nebraska defense prone to second-half collapses, he could be a welcome change of pace.
Declining ground game
Nebraska’s last two games were their worst rushing performances in 2026. The Oregon game was the first in which Nebraska failed to reach 100 rushing yards. The Washington game was the first in which the Huskers failed to score on the ground. Jamal Rule exploded onto the scene as a superstar in the making, but an injury limited him throughout conference play.
Rule carried the ball 13 times against Washington and averaged 5.5 yards per carry. If he’s fully healthy, Nebraska needs to give him the ball more. More Jamal Rule could be the antidote to Anthony Colandrea’s struggles. 65% of Rule’s runs and catches came in the first half, while only 35% came in the second half. For a Nebraska team that often plays with a lead in the second half, they should rely more on the ground game to shorten the second half.
Not flashy, but consistent
Rob Aurich described Illinois’ ground game this week as “not flashy, but consistent.” In the Big Ten in November, it’s a winning formula. Illinois point guard Aidan Laughery is tied with Jamal Rule for yards per carry at 6.3 (third in the Big Ten). As a team, Illinois averages 5.2 yards per carry, 4th in the conference.
At the team level, Illinois has a much higher success rate on passes than on runs (48.2% versus 42.5%). However, Illinois has some power in its rushing attack. Javari Bennet weighs 235 pounds and Jordan Anderson weighs 240 pounds. The Fighting Illini have the 8th shortest average third down distance in the country at 5.73 yards. Will these big guards be able to punish the Huskers from the start? The Blackshirts forced the 6th longest average third down distance in the country. Keeping these bruised backs out of the way will benefit Nebraska.
X factors
Illinois has a solid offense that will give the Huskers problems. But the Blackshirts were solid against strong offenses like Oregon and Indiana. The key battle in this game is whether Anthony Colandrea can rebound and provide a consistent passing game. Illinois plays a 3-3-5 defensive scheme, which includes 8-man drops and should eliminate many of the deep shots Nebraska made against Washington (to my personal relief). Instead, Dana Holgorsen said Nebraska should use quicker throws like slants and perimeter passes.
Illinois allows the highest opponent completion percentage in the country. Anthony Colandrea must take advantage of what Illinois allows and string together time-consuming practices to give the Husker defense some rest. Consistency, not volume, is a major focus of the passing attack this week against Illinois.
This is a crucial game for Matt Rhule and the Husker program. Nebraska needs to end its losing streak and dispel the reputation of a team that loses in November. Unfortunately, I think Nebraska has a lot to do about this. Nebraska struggles against Bret Bielema and in prime time games. This is a tough opponent for the Huskers looking to get their offense back on track, given their vulnerable defense and struggles in the second half.
However, until Nebraska proves it can overcome the mysterious force that has been plaguing it this season (and for much of the last 20 years), I would have a hard time picking them to win. Despite the favorable matchups, I see another heartbreak for the Huskers, with the Illini winning 21-17.
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