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The odds of Anthropic announcing a public offering have plummeted in recent days on Kalshi as AI-related stocks tumbled after Democrats took control of Congress and several key gubernatorial posts.
Over the past week, the odds of Anthropic announcing an IPO before December have fallen to 57%, compared to Kalshi’s more than 85%. The odds of the company announcing a public offering before January also fell to 68%, down from 90% last week. The contract asks when Anthropic will officially announce an IPO and will be verified by the media.
AI Company confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June.
Kalshi’s reassessment came as investors grew increasingly concerned that Democratic victories in both chambers could slow data center construction, making betting on AI less attractive.
Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa of Texas, a Democrat who ousted three-term Republican Greg Abbott, championed stricter protocols against data center construction in her state during her campaign.
“We will have laws to protect Texans and we need to stop what we are doing with data centers until we have those protections,” the Democrat told CNN on Thursday.
THE Nasdaq Composite closed Thursday more than 10% below its most recent high, crossing the benchmark for what Wall Street considers a correction. THE S&P500 lost 4.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,800 points, or 3.4%. Stocks were trying to rebound Friday, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.3% and the S&P 500 up 0.7%. The Dow Jones lost 0.2%.
On Friday, the shares of Micron technology And Nvidia each gained about 4%, after falling 17% and 9% respectively the day before. CoreWeave shares also rose more than 2% Friday morning after falling about 10% Wednesday. Even if Friday’s gains hold, these stocks have posted steep losses over the past week.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.
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