Ordinary investors could invest a record $250 million in Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) stock on its first day of trading, according to Vanda Research.
The estimate, which would be more than double the $118 million in net retail purchases on SpaceX’s (SPCX) first day of trading in June, is based on an increase in derivatives trading linked to Anthropic shares not yet listed on crypto exchange Hyperliquid.
Trading volume on the Anthropic-linked instrument hit a record $270 million on Tuesday, nearly triple last week’s daily volumes, according to analysis by Vanda strategist Viraj Patel.
Vanda found that retail stock trading activity on the opening days of recent IPOs, including SpaceX, was about five times the peak daily trading volume on their pre-IPO derivatives. Based on Anthropic’s perpetual futures trading activity on Tuesday, the valuation would suggest a net purchase of $250 million on the company’s scheduled listing day next week.
The projection comes with considerable caveats. Perpetual futures contracts tied to Anthropic represent a speculative measure of investor enthusiasm, and patterns from previous IPOs may not be repeated.
Anthropic is targeting a valuation of $1.4 trillion, lower than the $2 trillion market value discussed earlier, as the AI sector faces headwinds from rising borrowing costs, hedge fund deleveraging and political backlash from data center construction.
Anthropic also plans a retail investor allocation of up to 20%, which will be distributed through online brokerages including Charles Schwab (SCHW), Fidelity, Morgan Stanley’s E-Trade, Robinhood (HOOD), and SoFi (SOFI).
Learn more: Everything you need to know ahead of Anthropic’s IPO
Follow David Hollerith on X @DsHollers.
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