The race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or is heating up less than 24 hours before the winner is announced during a sumptuous ceremony in London.
A three-way showdown between Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane leads the debate as football’s most prestigious individual honor approaches.
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Yamal, the 19-year-old Spanish prodigy, and France’s 2018 World Cup winner Mbappe have both publicly backed each other for the honour, while England’s unstoppable Kane has been relatively coy in his campaign for himself.
The predictions are pouring in as we get closer to the awards ceremony at the London Palladium.
Ballon d’Or predictions: who did the AI pick as the winner?
According to data released by Avisia, a French data analytics and artificial intelligence company, Yamal is the favorite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
The Barcelona winger would have a 23% chance of winning the trophy, awarded to the best footballer of the 2025-26 season.
The data and AI consultancy firm chose Kane second, with a probability of 21%, while Mbappé placed third with 19%, tied with Rodri, the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner.
The top five list is completed by Lionel Messi, who has an 18% chance of winning for a record ninth time.
Avisia claims to have correctly identified the top five for the 2025 Ballon d’Or, won by Ousmane Dembélé.
Although Yamal is Avisia’s first choice, it is Kane who the bookmakers consider to be the absolute favorite, with around 70 percent probability.
What are the predictions of players and experts?
Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone believes his compatriot Messi, who recently retired from international duty, deserves to lift the Golden Ball.
“After the World Cup he played at his age… There’s no doubt about it,” Simeone said.
Former Italy international Marco Materazzi echoed these thoughts.
“With all due respect to Yamal, I think Messi has shown, at 38, that he is in a different league,” he added.
Jude Bellingham, also shortlisted for the Ballon d’Or, has backed England captain Kane and his attacking partner at the 2026 World Cup.
“He works very hard to get there, and he’s a very honest, hard-working person,” Bellingham said. When asked if Kane could win, he added: “It’s definitely possible.”
Fellow England international Anthony Gordon has sided with Barcelona teammate Yamal.
“What Lamine has accomplished at such a young age…the kind of player he is is ridiculous. He’s on a whole other level,” Gordon said.
Mbappe, on the other hand, has the support of his Real Madrid teammate Aurélien Tchouameni, who said the Frenchman had “an incredible season”.
Yamal, Kane or Mbappé: who will win the Ballon d’Or?
Looking only at individual stats, Mbappe leads the race as La Liga’s top scorer with 25 goals and Champions League top scorer with 15.
Mbappé also won the World Cup Golden Boot and set the record for most World Cup goals (12).
These staggering statistics make him a strong contender alongside Kane, who scored an incredible 73 goals last season – the most by any player since Messi scored 82 in 2011-12.
But Mbappé failed to win a trophy with club or country, while Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern but only guided England to third place. The lack of major titles weakens their cause.
This is where Yamal stands out.
The youngster won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barca, although on a personal level his statistics were not the best with injuries blighting his campaign.
Recent history suggests that winning a title in one of the major tournaments has become almost a prerequisite.
Only four of the previous 19 Ballon d’Or winners did not win a Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America in the year they were honored.
This bodes well for Yamal, who is trying to become the youngest winner, hoping to overtake Brazilian Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won in 1997.
Gn sports
