Bedard’s Breakdown: Drake Maye was excellent again against a low-rated pass defense, how does that compare to the others?

Two facts stood out from the Patriots’ 45-17 blowout victory over the Raiders regarding Drake Maye:

1. Maye had the best mark of her career.

He had 16.5 plus plays and only three minus plays. He had no “bad” throws and there was only one negative decision. Maye was simply exceptional in both his execution and decision-making (he made more than two plays for throws). It’s surprising that this performance came just two games after his career-worst mark against the Jaguars.

2. The performance came against a Raiders pass defense that is now 25th in pass DVOA, which is adjusted for opponent and changes week to week as more games are played and more data is available. Yes, the Raiders entered the game 3-1. Their three wins came against teams (Dolphins, Chargers, Saints) who now have a combined record of 1-14.

So I wondered: Does it mean anything that Maye played well against a mediocre pass defense? Is this what happened last year and then we saw what happened in the playoffs? I really didn’t know the answer. So I compared my grades for Maye with the teams’ rankings in pass DVOA. I didn’t know where to cut it, so I just went with the top half (16) and the bottom half. Interestingly enough, Maye made 13 starts against each half. The difference was obvious. Maye ended up with a net -41 in my ratings from the top and +43 from the bottom.

Even with this data, I wasn’t sure what that meant. I know Maye was definitely capable of playing well against the top half, as he had good results against the Browns (9th) and Bills (12th, in Game 1) last season. He’s also rated poorly compared to the bottom half (Steelers this year, Bengals last year).

I think you could say the indication is that Maye – who is still very young and early in his career, obviously – is having his best games against the bottom, and has more trouble against the top.

This led some callers on Felger & Mazz, as well as some on X, to ask a very legitimate question: How does this compare to other top quarterbacks? It makes sense that even good quarterbacks struggle against the best defenses, and have an easier time against lesser units.

So I’ve gone down a rabbit hole over the last 24 hours (hence the late post) to answer it. I realize that this is essentially a fruitless exercise. If the numbers aren’t good for Maye, it will be easy for some to write him off for any number of reasons they deem valid (lack of supporting cast, scheme, offensive line, injury, etc.). That’s how it is. I decided it was worth doing the exercise and discussing it.

I decided to compare Maye to Matthew Stafford And Jos Allen. Even though my grades take into account Maye’s ability to handle, I decided to take that out of the equation because it’s not fair to Stafford, an older pocket quarterback. Additionally, I think when it comes to winning championships (when you have to go through the best defenses), a quarterback’s ability to operate from the pocket and throw the ball becomes paramount. That being said, I included Allen’s athleticism to give Maye a fairer comparison.

Maye made 13 starts against the top 16 pass defenses in DVOA (8.9 average rating) and 13 starts against the bottom 16 (25.8 average rating).

Stafford has made 11 starts against the top (5.5 average rating – faced #1 Seattle three times, #2 Houston, #3 49ers this season), 14 against the bottom (23.4 average rating).

Allen made 11 starts against the top (9.7 average), 12 against the bottom (24.5).

Because of that alone, Stafford faced a tougher top half than Maye, and Allen was last. Stafford also faced a slightly tougher bottom half.

I used the following statistics:

• CPOE: Completion percentage above expectations (NextGenStats). A passer’s actual completion percentage compared to his expected completion percentage (Completion probability: The probability of a pass being completed, based on many factors such as the receiver’s separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at the time of the throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more.)
• Percentage of important throws (PFF)
• Percentage of play worth turnover (PFF)
• The difference between BTT and TWP
• Expected points added by backtracking
• Regular stats: completions, attempts, completion percentage, yards, TDs, INT, yards per attempt, rating, sacks, fumbles.
• Adjusted Completion Percentage (PFF): the percentage of aimed passes thrown at the target (completions + drops/aims)
• PFF passing grade. It’s the only way I can get closer to my league rating. I’m sure it’s not perfect, but I know Maye’s PFF grades generally match mine. If they use the same rating system and apply it consistently to every player, it should at least provide a solid comparison tool.

The results definitely surprised me.

Stafford was basically the same player against top and bottom half defenses. Maye definitely enjoyed himself more against weaker defenses. Although he is closer to Allen than Stafford, there is still a good distance.

• Maye’s PFF passing grade is 20 points higher than the bottom half (and he’s better than Stafford and Allen). Stafford is almost the same. Allen is 5 points better against the bottom half.

• Maye’s passer rating is 32.8 points better than the bottom half. Allen is 20.7 better, Stafford 10.9.

• Maye’s EPA/DB differential is +0.56 from the floor. Stafford and Allen are basically the same (-0.1).

• Maye’s adjusted completion percentage is 8.1 percent lower than the top half of DVOA. Stafford is -4.2 and Allen is actually better at +1.2.

• Maye’s yards per attempt are down an average of 2 yards from the peak. The difference is negligible for Stafford (-0.3) and Allen (0.1).

• Between interceptions and fumbles, Maye averages 2.15 against and 0.85 against. Allen is 1.9/1. Stafford is even.

• Maye is sacked 2.85 times more against the top. Allen is 1.5, Stafford is the same.

• The Maye difference between BTT% and TWP% is +6.1 compared to the background. Allen is +1.2. Stafford’s differential is actually better against the top half (4.3 to 2.6).

Here are the final figures:

I think it makes it pretty clear that at this point in his career, Maye does most of his damage against weaker pass defenses. This could very well match Stafford, Allen, Patrick Mahomesetc. at the start of their career as well. Someone else can do this job, but that’s a separate discussion for me anyway. Part of that conversation is whether Maye should be considered in the same class as the best quarterbacks in the league today and as a viable MVP candidate. Based on these statistics, I think this is premature.

That doesn’t mean he can’t be by the end of the season. Part of the reason the Patriots made changes to their receiving targets and offensive line was to help Maye be better against the better defenses he will face, especially in the playoffs. I think the Patriots realized they – and Maye – were at a disadvantage in the playoffs (something these better defenses reinforced), so they tried to improve with AJ Brown, Roméo Doubs, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Eli RaridonAnd Jared Wilson in the center. Maye didn’t even get a chance to perform with her entire supporting cast.

On this note, I’m sure many people will cite Stafford’s supporting cast (Puka Nacua, Davante Adams) And Sean McVayMaye’s plan as a reason is an unfair comparison for Maye. I think that’s fair, but I think it’s hard to make that point when comparing Maye to Allen (one could argue about his offensive line last season, but this season it’s much closer).

My feeling is that this is pretty typical for a young quarterback, and the gap between Maye’s performance against the top half and bottom half will get closer as he gains more experience. Right now, he’s closer to his days at North Carolina than he is to the end of his career (God willing). I’m willing to bet he’ll have at least the same conversation with Allen (30, 9th season) and Stafford (38, 18th season) when he has their experience level, if not better.

Here are the position grades, grades and 3 up/3 down against the Raiders:

Over his last six quarters, Maye has been virtually flawless. He regained confidence in his supporting cast and his pass protection (which was significantly better in this game). He throws with conviction, and he’s taken advantage of the pass-poor Bills and Raiders, giving him exactly what he wants with 1-on-1s down the field. … Maye’s only negative in this game was taking that hellish hit at the end of a scrimmage (which was a plus), a poor decision to throw triple coverage against Efton Chism when Romeo Doubs was the better option, and his ground penalty, which cost the team points. … Maye’s TD pass to Hunter Henry (pressure on his face), TD pass to Kyle Williams, Maye’s TD run and deep passes to Raridon and Williams were all elite plays.

Running backs (3.5 out of 5)