The MVP award has become, essentially, the “best quarterback” award – with rare exceptions.
No non-quarterback has won the MVP award since Vikings running back Adrian Peterson won the honor over Peyton Manning in 2012. In the current century, a non-quarterback has become MVP only four times: Marshall Faulk in 2000, Shaun Alexander in 2005, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and Peterson in 2012.
This year, there are a few running backs that deserve serious consideration, based on what we’ve seen over the course of four weeks.
Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is a touchdown waiting to happen, on any given play. His first 59-yard touchdown run Monday night in New Orleans set the tone for Atlanta’s 45-24 victory.
Despite four games, Robinson has 494 rushing yards, 120 receiving yards and five total touchdowns.
Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III has become the straw that stirs the Kansas City cocktail. He has 537 rushing yards, 84 receiving yards and six total touchdowns. He is also the third player in NFL history have 170 or more rushing yards in two of the first four games of a season, joining only Jim Brown and OJ Simpson.
Robinson and Walker both have 99 touches. Walker gained 621 yards. Robinson won 614.
When it comes to MVP betting odds (which are informative about general perceptions that are sure to sway some or more of the Associated Press 50 voters), Robinson and Walker are both at the bottom of the list. Robinson, who was 70-1 when Simms and I discussed the dynamic earlier this morning on Live PFTis now 60-1. Walker is 50-1.
Currently, the eight highest players on the odds list are quarterbacks.
Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs is 30-1, which may be a reflection of bets made on him before the season started. (He has 102 touches and 540 yards from scrimmage, with seven touchdowns.)
Here’s the real question. Is the perception of “value” skewed by the fact that the best quarterbacks make much more money than the best quarterbacks? The top of the quarterback market is approaching $65 million per year. Gibbs, the highest-paid running back, makes $22.5 million per year.
Robinson sits at $22.25 million per year. Walker, who signed as a free agent months before the Robinson and Gibbs deals were completed, makes $14.35 million per year. (To speak apples to apples, the Gibbs deal is worth $16.995 million per year from signing; Robinson’s deal averages $16.36 million from signing.)
The best running backs are far more valuable to their teams than the market suggests. The existing market held back Walker, Robinson and Gibbs. The increased risk of injury at the position is a major factor in teams’ reluctance to assume the financial risk of the player not being available at any given time.
Although their “value” is not properly reflected in their contracts, it should be recognized in their consideration for the MVP award. Current betting trends show that this is not the case. It will depend on the ability and willingness of voters to stop viewing the MVP as a quarterback award and start examining the definition of the award, as articulated by the AP.
“The player who was the most valuable to his team during the season.”
Robinson and Walker fit the bill. So will Gibbs if the Lions can recover from a slow start and become true contenders.
Gn sports
