Bill Gates says AI will create “true abundance,” but that the next two decades before its arrival will be “as tumultuous a time as there has been in human history.”
“My big concern is this 20-year transition period, where there will be winners and losers and a lot of disruption,” the Microsoft co-founder and billionaire philanthropist said in the latest episode of the “Decoder” podcast.
Gates echoed widespread concerns about white-collar jobs, saying that telesales, remote support and accounting will disappear as AI is able to do them “radically cheaper, radically faster and even more accurately.” As for manual jobs, humanoid robots will take over, he said.
“If we don’t choose to slow down or massively stop, then we will have robots that can build houses, grow food, perform surgeries,” Gates said. “And none of the things that human labor provides for the economy will be needed for most goods and services.”
He also highlighted how it will be overwhelming for someone like him, whose vast resources have allowed him to lead the charge toward eliminating malaria and tackling other humanitarian crises.
“And when the AI tells me, ‘No, I’m better than you, go play pickleball and I’ll tell you back, I’ll take care of that’ – I mean, it’s kind of humorous, but it’s not humorous,” he said.
Gates shared his long-held view that work is essential to giving people a purpose, a way to earn income, a reason to show up every day, a way to build relationships with colleagues, and a path to build things and solve problems.
He suggested that certain activities such as art, sports, cooking and childcare could one day be reserved for humans, “even though AI could do these things better.”
Gates also stressed that measures such as early retirement and capping working hours could help maintain some level of human employment.
He imagined that some people would say, “Let’s be like the Amish and only use AI for certain things,” so they don’t have to give up on “helping each other or coming up with unique ideas.”
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon have both proposed a shorter work week as a less painful alternative to AI-induced unemployment.
Gates is one of several tech leaders to warn of job disruptions on the road to an era of abundance.
Elon Musk predicted a “bumpy” transition and proposed government checks for all as the best solution to AI-related job losses. He said technology would reduce production costs to the point where everyone can have “whatever they want”, that work will become “optional” and that it’s not worth saving for retirement in 10 or 20 years because money won’t matter.
Similarly, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei said that AI promises to “improve everyone’s quality of life,” but that “the short-term shock will be of unprecedented magnitude.”
However, OpenAI’s Sam Altman said in May that AI had not eliminated as many white-collar jobs as he hoped and that he no longer predicted a “jobs apocalypse.”
Despite widespread concern about AI eliminating corporate jobs and high-profile layoffs at major companies such as Amazon and Meta, national unemployment did not rise significantly during the AI boom.
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