Two pro-Trump right-wing populists took a double take on Sunday: Brazil rejected Bolsonaro’s return and Serbia toppled a strongman’s ruling party.
The big picture: Brazil denied Trump a close ally at the helm of Latin America’s largest economy, ending a streak of seven consecutive conservative victories in the region. In Europe, Serbia and Hungary toppled leaders closely linked to Trump who had dominated their countries for years.
- Another crucial election looms on Tuesday, when Trump’s ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will have to fight for his political survival.
- On the eve of the election, Netanyahu touted Trump’s support and his “friendship” with the US president. But while the global right advances, opposition forces proved this weekend that they still have fuel.
Driving the news: In Brazil, left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva resisted a challenge from Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
- The younger Bolsonaro, widely seen as the heir to his father’s populist movement, refused to concede and called for the results to be overturned, according to translations.
- The elder Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of plotting a coup aimed at overturning his 2022 defeat. Trump called the charge a “WITCH HUNT.”
- The White House brought Axios’ attention to Trump’s comments Monday, in which he said the election “looks like another rigged election,” without providing evidence.
Between the lines: Brazil’s election has emerged as a test of Trump’s political influence in Latin America, where right-wing and Trump-backed candidates have celebrated an unbroken string of victories.
- These victories include the Trump-backed Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, Nasry “Tito” Asfura in Honduras and José Antonio Kast in Chile.
- Trump has not officially supported Flávio Bolsonaro, but he met with him earlier this year and imposed significant tariffs on Brazil as he protested accusations against Bolsonaro’s father. Lula is a vocal critic of Trump.
- In March, Flávio Bolsonaro told an audience at the Conservative Political Action Conference that America faced a “bifurcation” in the election: “Either you have the most powerful ally in the hemisphere or you have an antagonist.”
Zoom out: Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, a student-led opposition movement in Serbia toppled the right-wing party of longtime strongman Aleksandar Vučić, who was seeking to become prime minister.
- Unlike the Bolsonaros, Vučić conceded defeat on Sunday.
- The Balkan leader had courted Trump’s inner circle, including Donald Trump Jr., and he described the president as a “kindred spirit.”
- It reflects changing trends that also allowed neighboring Hungary to oust Trump ally Viktor Orbán, once one of the Western world’s most entrenched populist leaders, in April after 16 years in power.
Yes, but: Political upheaval in Europe cuts both ways: while the populist right has fallen in Serbia and Hungary, it is gaining ground in two of the continent’s largest economies.
- In France, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen launched her 2027 campaign this weekend, taking advantage of nationwide unrest to present her anti-crime and anti-migrant agenda.
- In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany party won a record 44% in regional elections last month and continues to lead in national polls.
What we’re looking at: Trump’s historic decision to support Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli election will once again test his influence abroad.
- Tuesday’s election in Israel promises to be a tight one for Netanyahu, who has sought to win Trump’s support by toying with former Israeli army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot.
- Netanyahu, 77, served as prime minister for about 19 years without consecutive terms. Analysts see the election as a referendum on the security failure of October 7, 2023, which left around 1,200 dead.
- Whoever governs Israel could shape Trump’s next actions in the Middle East, including escalating the war in Iran.
Go further: Lula against Bolsonaro: Brazil’s elections take place in Trump’s shadow
Editor’s note: This story has been updated with comments from President Trump.
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