A street vendor sells campaign flags of presidential candidates Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, seeking re-election in Brasilia, Brazil, Tuesday, September 29, 2026.
Eraldo Peres/AP
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Eraldo Peres/AP
RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil—As Brazilians prepare to vote Sunday in the first round of the presidential election, they are weighing the stark differences between the leading candidates on security, foreign policy and the environment. But they also think about kitchen table issues.
And if you really want to know what Brazilians think about the economy, look no further than how often picanha, the country’s prized cut of beef, is on the table.
When left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was campaigning for his current position four years ago, he told voters they would be able to afford it. picanha Again if he was elected. At the time, Brazil’s economy was still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Picanha, or a top sirloin steak, is a marker of prosperity in this beef-loving country.
Lula is now up for re-election, in what polls suggest is a close race with Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula’s economic record is among many issues being scrutinized by voters – and a recent poll found that only 10 percent of Brazilians believe their incomes have increased faster than the cost of living over the past year.
Marcella Pirozzi, 44, co-owner of a barbecue business in Rio de Janeiro, says that these days she only tries to sell picanha in the city’s wealthy neighborhoods. In poorer areas, people are “more conservative” about their spending, she says. “We don’t get hired to do events very often because of the price of meat.”
In his butcher shop in Rio’s working-class northern neighborhood, Arthur Guedes, 37, says he has also reduced the quantity of picanha he plans to sell in recent years. Instead, it focuses on a more accessible product: hamburger patties.
A woman buys meat at the Sao Paulo Municipal Market in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil. This South American country will hold elections on October 4, 2026.
Luis Robayo/
AFP via Getty Images
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Luis Robayo/
AFP via Getty Images
After Lula came to power, an explosion in public spending led to an acceleration in economic growth, although it is now slowing. During the first three years of his term, average wages increased more than inflation. But household debt has also increased, thanks to factors such as the rise of sports gambling, easy access to lines of credit and high interest rates.
Last June, Brazilian households spent 26.6% of their income on non-mortgage debt repayments, according to the central bank.
Some analysts say that a concept from the United States now applies to Brazil: that of “vibrecession”. The term was first used during the Joe Biden administration to describe an economy that is not technically in recession, but appears unaffordable.
Laura Carvalho, an economist at the University of São Paulo, believes this expression is appropriate. She said the gap between economic data and how it is perceived could be because Brazilians are making mental comparisons to an earlier period, when Lula was president, in the 2000s. Brazil’s economy boomed dramatically and many families were able to afford items such as refrigerators and air travel for the first time.
In contrast, today’s economy is suffering from price shocks that didn’t exist then, Carvalho said: “the pandemic, then the war in Ukraine, and now, the war in Iran.” Trump’s heavy tariffs on Brazil have also had adverse economic consequences.
Brazilian voters’ concerns about the cost of living are part of a global phenomenon, according to Carvalho.
“Incumbents everywhere are feeling the effects of price increases resulting from different shocks,” she said. “People look at rising prices and blame whoever is in government.”
Bolsonaro puts forward the idea that basic products have become unaffordable. He posted a video of himself speaking out against prices at a supermarket, making sure to check his name. picanha.
But he didn’t give many details about his own economic proposals. He widely argues that cutting taxes and government spending will boost growth. One of Bolsonaro’s top advisers praised the policies of Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei, who has reduced inflation but seen poverty rise in recent months.
Lula, for his part, played down concerns that Brazil’s national debt could become unsustainable. In recent days, he has announced new measures to combat household debt, such as a debt restructuring program and a ban on online betting.
Guedes, the butcher shop owner, said that just days before the election he still hadn’t decided how to vote.
“I don’t see clear strategies from the candidates on how to improve the country,” he said.
Pirozzi has made his decision. She says she is “ready for change” and will vote for Bolsonaro.
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