Brazil goes to the polls in elections decisive for the future of Latin America | Brazil

Brazilians will head to the polls in the first round of a highly polarized, high-stakes presidential election that could change the direction not only of Latin America’s largest country, but that of the entire region.

Sunday’s election pits left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, against far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, an ally of Donald Trump and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempted coup d’état after his failed bid for re-election in 2022.

Brazil is one of the few Latin American countries that still has a left-wing government after a wave of right-wing and far-right electoral victories in the region and the U.S. takeover of Venezuela following the capture of Nicolas Maduro.

Lula, 80, positions himself as one of the last regional leaders still ready to say no to Trump and recently accused the US president of trying to interfere in the Brazilian elections in favor of Bolsonaro.

Like his father, who was president of Brazil during Trump’s first term, Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, frequently praises the U.S. president and has pledged to join the U.S.-led anti-drug cartel coalition, which has killed dozens of people in airstrikes and carried out military operations in the region.

Lula and Bolsonaro took turns at the top of the rankings in the home stretch, which makes the outcome unpredictable. In recent days, both have focused on convincing undecided voters in the hope of reaching 50% plus one vote; if this is not the case, there will be a second round on October 25.

Voting Sunday morning in São Bernardo do Campo, the industrial city where his political career began nearly half a century ago, Lula said: “People will have to choose between strengthening democracy and barbarism. » The outgoing president downplayed polls released Saturday that showed the race was wide open — they suggested either candidate could finish ahead and force a runoff, or even win outright on Sunday. “The poll that matters will be done today,” he said.

Flávio Bolsonaro, who voted in the northern zone of Rio de Janeiro, urged supporters of other right-wing candidates to turn to him in a “protest vote”. “Our internal polls show that people who would have voted for other candidates, who are also against Lula, are already voting for Flávio Bolsonaro… I hope this will be enough to give us victory in the first round,” he said.

Claudinei Ferreira Viana, 45, workshop manager in Pinhais, in the state of Paraná, is one of the senator’s supporters. “My first choice would be Jair Bolsonaro, but since he is under house arrest and there is no other right-wing candidate strong enough to challenge the current president, I choose Flávio,” he said.

Earlier this year, polls suggested that Bolsonaro voters would have preferred a group led by São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas or former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro. But the former president chose his eldest son.

The campaign was also marked by a scandal in which the senator was filmed asking a banker accused of corruption for $26.8 million (£20 million) to finance a film about his father, as well as speculation that Bolsonaro could strip the country’s patron saint of her status, but he nevertheless remained highly competitive.

For many analysts, this reflects the combination of a simple shift in his father’s electoral base – Jair Bolsonaro lost to Lula by less than two percentage points in 2022 – and an anti-Lula vote, with the president still facing high rejection rates despite good social and economic indicators.

The outgoing president’s campaign has also been hit by allegations of corruption – still under investigation – involving his son and a former aide, as well as a scandal involving Supreme Court judges, which, although unrelated to Lula, is seen as fueling an “anti-system” and by extension, anti-incumbent vote.

Brazilians will also elect 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 members of the federal Congress and 54 of the country’s 81 senators in Sunday’s vote.

AMC, 40, who asked to be identified only by her initials because she fears reprisals from the local conservative government where she works inside Amazonas state, will vote for Lula on Sunday “because of the many programs he created to support the most vulnerable groups.”

“Jair Bolsonaro has weakened protections for indigenous peoples, and everything Lula has done over the past four years to strengthen those protections and protect the Amazon would be seriously threatened if his son came to power,” she said.