The last one: Trump said Thursday he was following Brazil’s elections “very closely” and called them “very important,” although he did not endorse any candidate.
Catch up quickly: Trump inserted the United States into the competition when his administration imposed additional 25% tariffs on some Brazilian goods this summer — prompting Lula to accuse the U.S. leader of “interference” in Brazil’s affairs.
- The dispute has become a campaign weapon for Lula and Bolsonaro, the eldest son of Trump ally and former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Context: The confrontation intensified in 2025 when the Trump administration targeted Brazil’s Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the prosecution of the elder Bolsonaro.
- The United States revoked his visa and sanctioned him, but the sanctions were later lifted.
State of affairs: Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running, but his son is committed to continuing his father’s political legacy.
- That leaves the heir to a right-wing populist movement facing a left-wing president seeking a fourth non-consecutive term.
- A candidate must win more than 50% of valid votes to avoid a runoff.
- Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are leading the pack, with recent polls showing them virtually even in a potential runoff.
The big picture: Nearly 60% of the Amazon rainforest is in Brazil. The forest stores enormous amounts of carbon and helps regulate the climate, giving the next president influence over an ecosystem whose consequences extend far beyond Brazil’s borders.
- Deforestation in the Amazon has fallen by about half since Lula returned to power, although his climate record is complicated by his support for expanding oil development.
- Flávio Bolsonaro has supported relaxing environmental regulations and said in August that he did not believe climate change was real.
- The election could determine whether Brazil continues its new forest protections while increasing its fossil fuel production.
Lula’s pitch: The 80-year-old president is campaigning on his record on economic and social policy: state-led national development, income redistribution and maintenance of social programs.
Bolsonaro’s pitch: The 45-year-old lawyer, who has represented Rio de Janeiro in the Brazilian Senate since 2019, campaigns for conservative social policies, tax cuts and a tougher fight against crime.
- He cited Argentina as a model for closer bilateral trade with the United States, while libertarian President Javier Milei appeared with him at a political event in São Paulo in July to support his candidacy.
- Flávio Bolsonaro met with Trump at the White House in May and later promised that Brazil would join Trump’s “Shield of the Americas” initiative if he won – a group that includes Argentina and El Salvador.
- He also hailed Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s security crackdown as a source of inspiration for Brazil and pledged to build “many, many prisons.”
What’s next: Brazil votes on Sunday. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, the top two will advance to a runoff on October 25.
Gn world
