The latest polls suggest Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro is narrowing, with neither candidate likely to win outright on Sunday.
Published on October 4, 2026
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro wrapped up their election campaigns, each expressing confidence in victory ahead of Sunday’s hotly contested first round.
Lula, 80, capped his re-election campaign Saturday with a march through Sao Paulo, Brazil’s economic powerhouse, drawing what his campaign called a record crowd for a closing rally.
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“Tomorrow we will win the elections in the first round,” he told his supporters, calling Sunday’s vote a choice between “democracy and barbarism” and promising to “defeat the extreme right.”
He also presented the election as a test of Brazil’s sovereignty, warning against any “interference” from Washington.
Bolsonaro led a motorcycle caravan through cities in Sao Paulo state, echoing his father’s campaign style, before later rallying in Rio de Janeiro. “I am convinced that everything is in place so that we can win this election in the first round,” he said.
The 45-year-old is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally of US President Donald Trump. The former leader, 71, is serving a 27-year prison sentence for trying to overturn his 2022 electoral defeat by Lula.
The younger Bolsonaro was photographed at his rally holding a portrait of his father.
Trump did not officially endorse Bolsonaro but said he was watching the election “very closely,” a level of American interest that has become a flash point in the campaign.
Lula’s supporters have seized on it as evidence that Washington is trying to interfere in the election, while some Bolsonaro supporters, frustrated by the cost of living, say they would welcome American pressure if it helped force change in their countries.
Polls released Saturday suggest Lula is still in the lead, but his lead is narrowing, with neither candidate likely to win outright on Sunday. Such a result would lead to an October 25 runoff between the two favorites, a contest that polls suggest would also be close.
It’s a much closer race than Lula’s last victory in 2022, when he beat the elder Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points.
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s campaign has come under scrutiny following a film financing scandal. Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation for financing Dark Horse, a biopic about his father, financed by an imprisoned banker linked to one of Brazil’s biggest financial scandals.
In April, Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized federal police to investigate whether Flavio Bolsonaro had made defamatory statements about Lula.
Bolsonaro has vowed to seek his father’s release if elected, and echoed his father’s unsubstantiated claims questioning the reliability of Brazil’s electronic voting system, which analysts say could set the stage for contesting the result if he loses.
Beyond the presidency, Brazil’s nearly 160 million registered voters will also elect lawmakers, governors and senators on Sunday.
Right-wing candidates have gained ground in Latin America in recent months.
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