Brazilians vote in second round of presidential election pitting leftist Lula against far-right Bolsonaro | Brazil

Brazilians will go to the polls on Sunday in a very unpredictable second round during which left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will attempt an unprecedented comeback against far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, winner of the first round.

Bolsonaro’s surprise victory, despite not leading most polls, made him the favorite three weeks ago, but since then Lula’s campaign has gained ground, and the two men enter the contest virtually tied.

The gap between them was the narrowest ever in a first round, with less than 2% of the vote, and the 80-year-old president spent much of the campaign’s runoff focusing on turnout — abstention reached a record high in the first round and disproportionately affects his voters — and stoking fears about what the return to power of a member of the Bolsonaro family could mean.

A member of Congress for more than 20 years with few bills passed, Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, under house arrest and serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup aimed at overturning his 2022 defeat to Lula.

“I think the time has come for real change,” Bolsonaro said after the vote Sunday morning at a school in the northern zone of Rio de Janeiro. “Brazil cannot endure another four years of the current state of affairs… Everyone’s life has gotten worse.”

Lula voted in São Bernardo do Campo, the industrial city where his political career began nearly half a century ago, and said he had “never seen anything like” the left-wing protests – many of which emerged organically among young people – that swept the country in support of him in the runoff.

“What the people have done for me in recent days is something that I will never be able to repay. It is so much generosity, so much affection, so much love. I will be eternally grateful,” Lula said, adding that he was “confident” that the people would not choose Bolsonaro.

The senator promised that if elected he would pardon his father, and with an even more conservative Congress taking office next year, he pledged to “change the Constitution and re-democratize this country,” sending shivers through those who fear he might follow in his father’s authoritarian footsteps.

“We are faced with two completely different projects for the country,” said voter Nuno Rau, 63, an architect and writer. “One points to the end of social rights and the end of democracy itself; on the other side, there is someone who fought for income distribution and free public education. I may be critical of Lula, but there is no way to single out Bolsonaro,” he added.

Aparecida Moreira, a 62-year-old lawyer, will vote for Bolsonaro mainly because of the “iron fist” security policy he is proposing, including the construction of five “mega-prisons” modeled after those of Salvadoran populist autocrat Nayib Bukele.

“I agree with Bolsonaro’s idea of ​​chemical castration of rapists, because there is no crime worse than rape,” Moreira said, adding that voting for Lula would be tantamount to voting for “dictator” Alexandre de Moraes, the judge who, although not appointed by Lula, is widely associated with him by Bolsonaro’s supporters because he oversaw the former president’s conviction.

Both Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula drew large crowds to their final campaign rallies on Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Belo Horizonte.

In the northern state of Minas Gerais, Iara Pimentel, an advisor to Lula’s party, suffered facial injuries and had to be taken to hospital after the motorcade she was traveling in was hit by glass bottles and bricks thrown by Bolsonaro supporters. “It is unacceptable that people are attacked for expressing their political opinions,” Pimentel said after his release from the hospital.

With virtually “crystallized” supporters on each side, the election will be decided by the small number of voters who do not identify with either candidate.

Bolsonaro began the runoff campaign with a lead and the support of most of the other defeated candidates, but instead of making progress, he stagnated in the polls.

Many analysts see it as the result of a sudden awakening among part of the population due to the “fear” of a return to power by Bolsonaro, as well as controversies, notably over the fact that the senator is under investigation in two federal police investigations into allegations of corruption and money laundering.

Lula, on the other hand, radically changed his digital strategy and benefited from student-led protests across the country, most of which did not even involve the president.

“In the first round, Lula’s campaign failed to reach the population, but it is now civil society movements that have driven its growth,” said political scientist Helcimara de Souza Telles.

The latest polls released on Saturday show Bolsonaro still slightly ahead.

The outcome is expected Sunday evening and whatever the outcome, the race is expected to be decided by a narrow margin in Latin America’s largest country, with an electorate of 159 million.

Many analysts believe that if Lula reverses his first-round defeat, Bolsonaro could follow his father’s example four years ago and refuse to concede, and that Donald Trump, a longtime ally of the Bolsonaro clan, could refuse to recognize the result.

“Trump wants to ‘colonize’ all of Latin America in pursuit of his own interests,” Telles said, adding that, with right-wing candidates having won all seven presidential elections held in Latin America since the start of his second term, Brazil is one of the few countries in the region that still offers some resistance to the US president.

“A victory for Bolsonaro would therefore mean losing Brazil to a model of autocracy supported by the United States,” she added.