Brazil’s neck-and-neck election poses test for growing pro-Trump Latin American bloc | Brazil

SShortly after his controversial speech to the United Nations General Assembly in September, Donald Trump gathered a dozen like-minded Latin American leaders and boasted that right-wing candidates had won all seven presidential elections held in the region since the start of his second term.

“Everyone I supported won,” the US president told New York to most of the leaders of the Shield of the Americas, an anti-drug cartel coalition of 15 countries governed by the right or far right.

These electoral victories – and the US takeover of Venezuela after Nicolás Maduro’s capture – left only six Latin American countries under left-wing governments: regional heavyweights Brazil and Mexico, smaller Uruguay and Guatemala, and the isolated regimes of Cuba and Nicaragua.

On Sunday, Brazilians will head to the polls for a presidential election that many believe will not only determine the fate of Latin America’s largest country for the next four years.

Given Mexico’s geographic proximity and unique economic relationship with the United States, analysts view Brazil as perhaps the last country in the region still capable of saying “no” to Trump’s whims – something that could change dramatically depending on the outcome of the election.

Polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old left-wing incumbent who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, and Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, a far-right senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

“Trump is really serious about the idea that the Americas should be his backyard,” said Pedro Telles, a professor at the School of International Relations at Brazil’s FGV University.

“Mexico will remain relevant, and its president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is one of the most popular left-wing leaders. But if Flávio wins, it would be a real blow to the left and a major boost to the far-right agenda around the world,” Telles added.

“There’s a lot at stake,” said Sandra Borda Guzmán, an associate professor of political science at the Universidad de los Andes in Colombia. “Instead of taking advantage of the opportunity to expand our region’s autonomy, a far-right victory would unconditionally align the region with the dictates of the United States,” she added.

Lula and Bolsonaro differ sharply on the United States, including what has become Trump’s primary foreign policy in the region: the so-called “war on drugs” used to justify dozens of airstrikes on ships that have killed more than 230 people and joint operations involving U.S. military personnel on land.

While Bolsonaro pledged to join the Shield of the Americas and take an “iron fist” approach to crime, Lula expressed concerns about sovereignty and said he was “sad to see the inferiority complex of Latin American presidents” who are part of the coalition created by Trump.

The relationship between Lula and Trump has oscillated between silence and public displays of warmth, but is currently at an all-time low, with the Brazilian president and Democratic members of the US Congress accusing Washington of trying to interfere in favor of Bolsonaro.

“Brazil is a big prize,” said Michael Shifter, an assistant professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, adding that amid endless conflicts in Iran, Ukraine and Israel-Palestine, “US foreign policy is doing very poorly in the rest of the world.”

A Bolsonaro victory in Brazil, he said, would be used “triumphantly” by Trump to produce an “almost completely aligned region.”

At the latest Americas Shield meeting, Trump made it clear that it’s not just about security. The US president also spoke of the “immense natural wealth” of Latin American countries, which he said could not “be monopolized by hostile external powers” ​​– which is widely understood to be a reference to China.

Privileged access to rare earths and essential minerals from Brazil was one of the conditions imposed by Washington in exchange for not applying customs duties, which Lula rejected. Bolsonaro, for his part, proposed these natural resources as the “solution” to help the United States “break its dependence on China.”

“Democracy is also at stake here,” Shifter added, pointing out that Bolsonaro was only running because his father couldn’t – Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest after being convicted of an attempted coup aimed at overturning his defeat to Lula in the 2022 elections.

“So this is not just another country moving to the right, but a right that has a very problematic relationship with democracy,” he said.

As in recent elections in Latin America, the race includes other candidates but is polarized between two leading candidates. Lula and Bolsonaro took turns at the head of the peloton in the final straight, which made the outcome unpredictable; if neither wins 50% plus one of the votes, a second round will take place on October 25.

Bolsonaro’s only previous bid for an executive position in government ended ignominiously when he came in fourth place in Rio’s mayoral race in 2016. But analysts say there are several reasons why a congressman best known for his last name and corruption allegations — some shelved, others still under investigation — has become a serious challenger to a three-time president.

Unemployment, poverty and inflation have fallen, and average incomes have risen, as has household debt – which many attribute to online gambling, which the former Bolsonaro left unregulated and which Lula banned days before the vote.

The outgoing president’s campaign was also hit by corruption allegations – still under investigation – involving his son and a former aide, while a scandal involving Supreme Court judges unconnected to Lula could have rubbed off on the president.

Many therefore see Bolsonaro’s support as coming both from a simple transfer of his father’s electoral base and from an anti-Lula vote.

“I will vote for Flávio, but not because I think he is the best option,” said Bruna Arguello, 34, a businesswoman from Santana de Parnaíba, whose first choice would be Ronaldo Caiado, former far-right governor of Goiás, with 4% of the polls. “Unfortunately he has no chance of winning, so I’m going with Flávio so we can get Lula out,” she said.

Actor Docy Moreira, 59, will vote for Lula. In 2018, she was so dismayed by the election of Jair Bolsonaro that she decided to leave her hometown of Belo Horizonte, where two-thirds of voters supported the far-right leader. “I didn’t understand how people, including the vast majority of my family, chose so much violence and authoritarianism,” she said.

She Googled which cities gave Bolsonaro the lowest vote share, chose one about 1,550 miles away, and moved north to Luís Correia in Piauí.

She finally returned home and most of her family will now vote for Bolsonaro’s son. However, Moreira remains confident in Lula’s victory.

“Otherwise it will be devastating, but I will not move. I am stronger now. I have learned that I can find refuge in myself,” Moreira said.