The Brewers’ 3-2 victory over the Padres in Game 1 of their National League Division Series Saturday night in Milwaukee was marked by a bizarre and controversial moment in the ninth inning.
With the Brewers clinging to that one-run lead with one out and the potential tying run on base, closer Trevor Megill delivered a 1-0 fastball to Padres slugger Ty France, whose ball hit a wire on the ballpark roof and landed in the glove of Milwaukee’s Jackson Chourio on the left-field warning track. Here’s what happened:
The basic rules from American Family Field, the site of Game 1, say the following:
- Hit ball striking roof, roof truss or roof cable above fair territory: In play
- If caught by a fielder, the batter is out and runners advance at their own risk.
- Smacked ball striking roof, roof truss or roof cable above foul territory: dead ball
The umpires agreed that the ball hit the roof above fair territory and that a challenge by Padres manager Craig Stammen failed. This meant that Chourio’s heads-up and skillful play with the ball would constitute a takedown.
Following the basic rules above, this seems like the right decision. The question then becomes whether the ball hit by France would have been a home run if it had been able to continue unhindered.
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France hit the ball right off the bat at 105.3 mph and with a launch angle of 49 degrees. Even after hitting the roof, it traveled 325 feet and, according to Statcast estimates, would have been a home run at an MLB ballpark – Daikin Park in Houston. That said, it’s very difficult to hit a ball out of the park with such a steep launch angle. As Timothy Burke posted on Bluesky, no Statcast-era ball with an exit velocity of 105 mph and a launch angle of 49 degrees has ever been a home run. Batted balls with these characteristics have a batting average of .037 and, again, no home runs.
While no one can say with certainty that the ball hit by France wouldn’t have been a home run for the Padres if it hadn’t hit the roof, the best available evidence strongly suggests that it wouldn’t have been.
“We joked about it in the referees meeting today about what would happen if the ball hit the roof,” Stammen said after the match. “And it was unlikely, but it happened. The rule is if they judge the ball to be fair and it falls, you can catch it. If it hits the roof, then it’s a foul ball. So they decided it hit the roof and the outfielder caught it.
“Unfortunately, it’s a bad break for us. It looked like it was a possible home run. It just didn’t go our way. This is the second time this has happened this year for the Padres. We should be able to bounce back really well.”
On the other side, Brewers catcher William Contreras, whose seventh-inning solo homer provided the winning run, told reporters he thought the ball would have been a home run. However, Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy thought otherwise. “That would be a foul ball,” Murphy said after the game. “It was going to be a foul ball, that’s for sure.”
As for France itself, the moment was late.
“I haven’t been able to fully understand that,” France said (via The Athletic). “But it was a game changer.”
Gn sports
