Aaron Kirman, founder and CEO of Christie’s International Real Estate in Southern California, speaks to Fox News Digital about declining support for the proposed “billionaire tax” and its implications for the real estate market.
As voter support for California’s proposed “billionaire tax” dips below 50%, luxury real estate titan Aaron Kirman is sounding the alarm, warning that the mere threat of Proposition 40 is freezing high-end deals and pushing California’s top job creators out the doors.
“We think this proposal is disastrous for California. It’s disastrous for the real estate market, and buyers and sellers are fed up with California taxation,” Kirman, CEO and founder of Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California which has more than $26 billion in sales under its belt, told Fox News Digital.
“With California being one of the highest tax states, I think buyers and sellers, whether they’re billionaires or not, have simply had enough,” he continued. “And the general public needs to understand that this is a top-down market, and if buyers and sellers simply decide not to transact in California, it will affect the entire global community here.”
A recent POLITICO poll from UC Berkeley’s Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research found that 45 percent of likely voters support Proposition 40, while 43 percent oppose it and 12 percent are undecided. That’s down from 50 percent support in the Citrin Center-POLITICO poll conducted earlier this year.
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The proposal – supported by the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West – would impose a single tax of 5% on certain assets exceeding $1 billion held by individuals who resided in California as of January 1, 2026, generally excluding real estate, pensions and retirement accounts. The tax would be due in 2027 and taxpayers could spread their payments over five years at an additional cost, according to the Legislative Analyst’s Office.
Supporters hold signs in support of the Billionaire Tax Now coalition during a news conference in Los Angeles, Calif., Monday, April 27, 2026. (Getty Images)
Still, Kirman argued that the possibility of a tax and broader economic pressures, including inflation and high mortgage rates, have created headwinds for California’s real estate market. He said these factors, compounded by state and local tax initiatives, have created a “wait and see” attitude among buyers and sellers.
“Interest rates aren’t helping. Inflation has been a challenge. And then moving things around in California hasn’t been easy. So when you put it all together, the general sentiment toward the luxury market is frothy. Buyers are tired of getting in. And we’re seeing a lot of buyers sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see what’s going to happen,” he said.
“Billionaires and multimillionaires are looking at the big picture,” Kirman said. “Now people are re-evaluating that and saying, ‘Look, if I’m going to continue to be taxed in this way, I’d rather be in a state that values my business and the employees that I generate’…And they’re really looking the other way. what I want to do is continue this trend.”
Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of billionaires residing in California as of January 1, 2026. | Getty Images
The recent poll showed that voters were less likely to support Proposition 40 if they didn’t think it would remain a “one-size-fits-all” tax. But despite declining support for the tax itself, the poll still reveals a prevailing distrust of billionaires, with 44% of voters saying they do more harm than good.
“Behind the billionaire is a business, and behind that business are employees who work for the business. And all of that is good for a state. And I think people are finally starting to realize that California needs its industry to survive. And the more people we lose, the worse off the state is going to be,” Kirman said.
“It’s not always as simple as ‘tax the rich’ and give to people who need it,” he added. “A state needs infrastructure, a state needs businesses that support people, the economy. And from there it’s a top-down business, right? It’s not just about employees, restaurants, nightlife, shopping. I mean, it’s all of those things that combine to do what’s really important, which is a business-friendly state, that supports growth, taxes properly and doesn’t always take it by the nose. high.”
Kirman also pointed to Los Angeles’ ULA Transfer Tax measure — the “municipal mansion tax” adding 4 percent on transfers over $5.4 million and 5.5 percent on transfers over $10.9 million — as a telling example of the inverse effect of local policy on housing supply and market activity.
“It starts with the ULA measure, which has been a catastrophic tax on the luxury segment in California,” he said. “We saw, after the ULA – which was a tax aimed at the homeless – billions of dollars that weren’t going to the right place. And that continues to be a trend, and I think California voters are fed up. I think business owners are fed up, whether they’re large businesses or small businesses. to grow as a community and not have to go backwards because of bad policy.”
“In a city (where) we need housing, we need apartments, this tax has backfired. They’ve collected billions of dollars. Our transaction volume is down 60%; we’re down 70% in apartment construction,” Kirman said.
California voters are heading to the polls to make their voices heard on Proposition 40 and elect a new governor on November 3. (Getty Images)
“And the concern isn’t just about billionaires. A lot of people who are very successful multimillionaires are saying, ‘Look, if they’re going to put a tax on billionaires, then is there going to be a tax on millionaires, right? And that’s the kind of message that doesn’t help California succeed,’ the CEO continued. “And I think because there have been so many taxes imposed by Los Angeles and California, most directors say enough is enough.”
California remains the world’s fourth-largest economy, although the latest U.S. Census Bureau estimates show its population declined slightly between July 2024 and July 2025. Kirman stressed that tax reform and policies aimed at economic growth are key to maintaining the state’s competitiveness.
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“It really hurts my heart a little bit because I believe California is the best state in the country, or one of the best. We have incredible infrastructure. We have incredible business. We are the fourth largest economy in the world. And on top of that, we have a lifestyle that no other state can offer. And it’s sad to see businesses and multimillionaires and billionaires moving to other states, not because they want to, but because they are looking for states for themselves financially responsible.”
“There are two things we know for sure in life: death and taxes will always exist, and it will always be a conversation piece. But I believe California residents, as well as government, need to start coming together and there needs to be some fiscally intelligent decision-making when it comes to taxes. Because the last thing we want to do is lose our large and small businesses to other states.”
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