Changing Senate Ratings: Kansas, Minnesota Close

With three weeks until Election Day, the Senate battleground is growing. MS NOW shifts Kansas to a “Republican trend” and Minnesota to a “Democratic trend,” pulling two seats that once seemed safer into competitive territory.

Kansas

Kansas joined our list of races to watch last month, when we rated it as “likely Republican.” Although we still give the Republican Party the edge in defending this seat, several factors have moved it into a more competitive category: Lean Republicans.

On the one hand, polls continue to show Democrat Adam Hamilton neck and neck with incumbent Senator Roger Marshall. As we explained a few weeks ago, the national environment looks bleak enough for the Republican Party that even a state as red as Kansas could be elected in the single digits this year. Hamilton, a well-known Methodist minister, appears to be a strong candidate, while Marshall has fended off questions about his past medical billing practices and, as MS NOW recently reported, his campaign finances. Still, it’s striking that polls show Hamilton tied, or even slightly ahead of Marshall, in a state Trump won by 16 points.

However, polls suggest a certain amount of caution. Voters who supported Trump in 2024 are more likely to be undecided than those who supported Kamala Harris — a trend visible in recent New York Times/Siena and YouGov polls. If these undecided voters end up turning to Marshall, consistent with their past votes, he has the opportunity to gain some points.

Polls also show a number of ticket splits, with Republican gubernatorial candidate Ty Masterson leading Marshall. But the bigger question is how many voters In fact supporting a Republican for governor and a Democrat for senator in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century. And even if the midterm polls were quite accurate on average In recent cycles, polls in individual states have often missed several points. It’s not hard to imagine pollsters once again having trouble reliably reaching Republican voters.

Voter registration trends offer Democrats another somewhat encouraging sign. Statewide, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, 45% to 26%. But the past few months have hinted at some energy on the Democratic side: Democrats outpaced Republicans in new registrations by a 2-to-1 margin in August and September, according to the Kansas secretary of state’s office. Although new registrants represent just a drop in the bucket compared to Republicans’ overall advantage, it’s a markedly different trend than in 2022, when Republicans outpaced Democrats during the same period. Kansas also has a large pool of unaffiliated voters, who will likely play a significant role in determining the final margin. Polls suggest they favor Hamilton.

Finally, Republicans and their affiliated groups act as if Kansas is truly competitive. Vice President JD Vance visited the state last month to rally support, and the Senate Leadership Fund (PAC) began spending big on the race in late September. He now has more than $10 million in ad time booked, according to AdImpact. This perhaps reflects an abundance of caution, as election waves often result in unexpected upheavals that benefit the outgoing party in power. Regardless, it’s remarkable that Republicans feel the need to consolidate support in a seat like this.