The Indianapolis Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard a day after losing 26-20 to the previously winless Tennessee Titans. The Colts dropped to 2-4 with the loss.
Ballard is the first head coach or front office executive to be fired during the 2026 NFL season. His nearly 10-year tenure as Colts general manager was hampered by an inability to find a long-term solution at quarterback following the surprising retirement of Andrew Luck shortly before the start of the 2019 regular season.
The Colts haven’t made the playoffs since going 11-5 in 2020 with 39-year-old Philip Rivers signing a one-year, $25 million contract in free agency. Rivers retired after a 27-24 playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills, who lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
There is a bold move Ballard could have made in 2021 that would have ended the revolving door at quarterback that has plagued the Colts and changed the trajectory of the franchise. The Detroit Lions have responded to Matthew Stafford’s trade request. The Colts were on Stafford’s short list of teams, along with the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. Stafford mentioned during a March 2025 episode of Jason and Travis Kelce’s “New Heights” podcast that he had been looking for homes in Indianapolis on Zillow before his trade to the Rams.
The Lions received a 2022 first-round pick, a 2023 first-round pick, a 2021 third-round pick and Jared Goff, who was considered a “bridge quarterback” because of his big contract, from the Rams for Stafford. After a rough start in Detroit, Goff proved to be the answer at quarterback, earning a four-year, $212 million contract extension, averaging $53 million per year in 2024. An offer from Ballard that the Lions couldn’t refuse likely would have been somewhere between the actual acquisition cost of Stafford and the two quarterback trades made the following year, in 2022, for Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.
What would it have taken for the Colts to land in Stafford?
The Seattle Seahawks dealt Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick to the Denver Broncos for several players (tight end Noah Fant, defensive lineman Shelby Harris and quarterback Drew Lock), 2022 and 2023 first-round picks, 2022 and 2023 second-round picks and a 2022 fifth-round pick in March 2022. Washington’s commanders reportedly offered the Seahawks three first-round picks. pick, but Wilson’s no-trade clause, which he waived for the Broncos, gave him control of his destination.
Watson’s trade from the Houston Texans to the Cleveland Browns followed shortly thereafter. The Browns received Watson and a 2024 sixth-round pick for 2022, 2023 and 2024 first-round picks, a 2022 fourth-round pick, a 2023 third-round pick and a 2024 fourth-round pick.
Perhaps a trade based on Ballard giving up the 2021 (21st overall), 2022 and 2023 first-round picks for Stafford would have sealed the deal. The Rams did not have a first-round pick in 2021 due to a trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars for cornerback Jalen Ramsey midway through the 2020 season.
Ballard subsequently demonstrated that he could make big decisions to try to improve the Colts’ roster. At last year’s trade deadline, Ballard went all in for the 2025 season as the Colts went 7-2 by acquiring All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner from the New York Jets for a 2026 first-round pick, a 2027 first-round pick and wide receiver Adonai Mitchell.
This type of aggressiveness from Ballard in 2021 to stabilize a football team’s most important position, quarterback, would have prevented Carson Wentz’s failed experiment. Wentz was acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles for a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick who became a 2022 first-round pick because his offensive playing time in the 2021 season reached 75%. He was reunited with Frank Reich, who coached the Colts from 2018 through nine games into the 2022 season. Reich served as Wentz’s offensive coordinator during Wentz’s first two years in the NFL with the Eagles, 2016 and 2017.
The salary cap wouldn’t have been a barrier to getting Stafford. He had two years remaining on his $43 million contract, earning $20 million in 2021 and $23 million in 2022. Wentz had four years left on $98.4 million on his contract before reworking his contract, where $5 million of his $25.4 million 2021 compensation was moved to 2022 for additional contract security.
The reunion was short-lived. Wentz’s poor play throughout the 2021 season, particularly in the regular season finale against the Jaguars 2-14, when the Colts controlled their own playoff destiny but failed to secure a playoff berth, led to his departure. Colts owner the late Jim Irsay called the acquisition of Wentz a mistake shortly after he was dealt with a 2022 second-round pick (47th overall) and a 2022 seventh-round pick to the Commanders for a 2022 second-round pick (42nd overall), a 2022 third-round pick and a conditional 2023 third-round pick in March 2022. The 2023 selection was not upgraded to a 2023 second-round pick since Wentz did not take at least 70% of Washington’s offensive snaps in 2022.
An aging Matt Ryan was acquired in March 2022 for a third-round pick. The Colts anticipated Ryan would be the quarterback for two years, as his contract was restructured and $12 million of his 2023 salary would be fully guaranteed. Father Time caught up with Ryan, then 37, in 2022. Instead of fighting for a playoff spot, the Colts finished 4-12-1 in 2022. Ryan was released in March 2023. He made $36.7 million for his one-year stay in Indianapolis.
Reaching Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick in 2023 wouldn’t have happened either. Richardson was a boom-or-bust quarterback with a low floor and high ceiling. The Colts were enticed by his great arm strength and tremendous athleticism, ignoring his raw and inexperienced nature. Richardson made 13 starts during his three years in Florida.
The Colts hedged their bet on Richardson by signing Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million contract worth up to $17 million through incentives in March 2025. Going with Jones, who was benched by the New York Giants for 10 games during the 2024 season before his release request was granted, at quarterback in 2025 was initially more of an accusation of Richardson than anything else.
Jones was enjoying a surprising career resurrection when he tore his right Achilles tendon late in the 2025 season. A 7-1 start turned into a stunning collapse where the Colts finished with an 8-9 record.
Jones was given the rarely used transition tag for $37.8 million before quickly signing a two-year, $88 million contract worth up to $100 million through incentives, with $60 million in guarantees, $49.49 million of which was fully guaranteed upon signing in March. He’s struggled so much this season that a bench isn’t out of the question.
Why Stafford would have made the Colts a contender
Stafford paid immediate dividends for the Rams. After going 10-6 and being eliminated in the divisional playoffs in 2020, the Rams won Super Bowl LVI. Stafford has arguably had the best season of his career to this point. He completed 67.2% of his passes for 4,886 yards with 41 touchdowns and 17 interceptions to post a passer rating of 102.9. Stafford finished in the top 10 in the NFL in touchdown passes, passing yards, passer rating and completion percentage, ranking second, third, sixth and 10th, respectively. More importantly, Stafford improved his play in the postseason. Stafford’s 2021 season was then capped off in 2025 when he was named NFL MVP.
There’s no guarantee the Colts would have replicated the Rams’ success with Stafford in 2021. The Colts surely would have made the playoffs with the quarterback upgrade and would have challenged the Titans, who were 12-5 in 2021, for the AFC South crown. After all, the Colts went 9-8 with Wentz and 11-5 in 2020. It’s conceivable that the two-game win regression from 2020 could have resulted in no drop in wins or at least an increase in one-game wins with Stafford at quarterback.
The 2021 Colts had a strong offensive line anchored by perennial All-Pro offensive guard Quenton Nelson. Running back Jonathan Taylor was easily the best running back in the league, winning the rushing title by 552 yards while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. The 2021 First Team All-Pro led the NFL with 2,171 scrimmage yards (combined rushing and receiving yards), 1,811 rushing yards, 20 total touchdowns and 18 rushing touchdowns. The Colts had a good defense with All-Pros DeForest Buckner and Shaquille Leonard at defensive tackle and off-ball linebacker respectively.
Presumably, Stafford would have gotten a deal comparable to the four-year, $160 million extension he signed in 2022 with the Colts. Frankly, Stafford didn’t fully exploit his significant contract leverage, considering the Rams were coming off a Super Bowl win. Instead, he made a conscious decision to leave money on the table in a sweetheart deal that tied him to Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott as the league’s fourth-highest paid player after signing for $40 million per year. This led to a somewhat contentious relationship with the Rams due to Stafford’s dissatisfaction with his contract.
Still, Stafford should have given the Colts an extended window as a contending team. Stafford has consistently performed worst among the top 10 quarterbacks since joining the Rams, and at an elite level for long stretches. The road to the Super Bowl in the AFC would always have gone through the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. NFL MVPs Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who have yet to reach the Super Bowl with the Bills and Baltimore Ravens, also reportedly stand in the way of the Colts. Ultimately, Ballard’s ability to find talent while consistently being at the bottom of the NFL Draft and in free agency would have determined the Colts’ success. Without a doubt, the Colts would not have gone 38-46-1 over the 2021 through 2025 seasons without any playoff appearances if Stafford had been the quarterback.
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