Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper held a 25-point lead among independent voters over Republican Michael Whatley in the latest poll of the North Carolina Senate race, a sharp reversal from President Donald Trump’s 4-point victory among the critical voting bloc in the 2024 election.
The North Carolina Senate race is one of the most closely watched 2026 midterm elections and is a must-win for Democrats in their effort to flip control of the Senate in November.
Cooper has established a polling advantage over Whatley, who served as chairman of the Republican National Committee in the race to succeed incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
The new AARP poll released Monday gives Cooper an 11-point lead overall and a 25-point lead among independent voters, the latest warning sign for Republicans in the Tar Heel State.
Jeff Allen, Cooper’s campaign manager, said News week that North Carolina “is a 50-50 state and this will be a race with margin for error, which is why we are building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them, while Michael Whatley continues to enrich himself at their expense.”
“No Democrat has won statewide federal office here in nearly two decades — and Whatley’s elite Washington connections mean Republicans will spend whatever it takes to hold on to this seat,” Allen said.
News week also contacted Whatley’s campaign for comment via email.
Key takeaways
- The poll also finds that Trump’s approval is undervalued in North Carolina. He won it by about 3 points over former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. His approval nationally has plummeted amid growing frustration with the economy.
- North Carolina has emerged as Democrats’ best opportunity in the midterms as they hope to expand the battleground to win in more conservative states. Democrats’ path to victory in the Senate runs through the Tar Heel State.
- Other polls and prediction markets have favored Cooper, but the race is still considered competitive.
North Carolina Senate Race: What a New Poll Shows
Cooper received support from 53 percent of respondents in the poll, while 42 percent said they would vote for Whatley. Five percent said they were considering voting for another candidate or remained undecided about how they would vote.
Among independent voters, Cooper held a substantial lead, receiving 58 percent of the vote to Whatley’s 33 percent. Nine percent were undecided or planned to vote for another candidate.
The Democrat’s wide lead among independents is notable because that voting bloc backed Trump in the 2024 election by about four points, or 51% to 47%, according to CNN exit poll data.
Voters generally viewed Cooper more favorably than Whatley and he is also better known among North Carolina voters, with 48 percent saying they view the former governor favorably and 41 percent unfavorably. Meanwhile, Whatley’s favorability stood at 31 percent, with 37 percent viewing him unfavorably, according to the poll.
Among independents, Cooper had a +13 point favorability rating, while Whatley had a -20 point favorability rating.
The AARP poll was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research. They surveyed 1,115 likely voters from September 17 to 20 and found a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Steven Greene, professor of political science at North Carolina State University, said: News week that Cooper has built a lead in the polls because 2026 is shaping up to be a good year for Democrats and because Cooper is a strong candidate.
“Whatley is a neophyte when it comes to campaigning and politics in North Carolina. I’d be surprised if the margin was that big on Election Day, but that’s basically a formula for a pretty big Cooper win,” he said.
Winning independents is “very important” for candidates in an evenly divided state like North Carolina, he added.
Cooper was able to win over these influential voters during his two gubernatorial runs, according to Greene.
“There is widespread dissatisfaction with Donald Trump’s presidency and the state of the economy, especially prices. This is a recipe for the party out of power – in 2026, the Democrats – to succeed,” he said.
Trump’s approval rating in new poll
The poll also found that Trump’s approval rating is undervalued among North Carolina voters.
Only 38 percent of respondents said they approved of the president’s job performance, while 59 percent said they gave him negative marks. Among independents, 26% approved of Trump while 71% disapproved, according to the poll.
Trump’s approval rating has important implications for the race. Historically, midterm elections have been viewed as a referendum on the sitting president. The party represented by the White House tends to lose seats in the House and Senate. Whatley is closely aligned with Trump, having received the president’s support.
The president’s popularity has declined in recent months as voters’ frustration with the economy, cost of living and gas prices increases. The economy has become a central focus of Democratic and Republican campaigns, as voters look for leaders who can mitigate rising prices.
What do other polls show?
Other recent polls have also given Cooper an edge over Whatley.
Cooper rose 5 points, or 48 to 43 percent, in a recent Quantus Insights poll, which surveyed 686 likely voters Sept. 21-22. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Cooper held an 11-point lead in the latest YouGov poll, receiving 52 percent support to Whatley’s 41 percent. It surveyed 3,895 registered voters from September 15 to 18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Meanwhile, an InsiderAdvantage poll gave Cooper a 6-point lead, 48.4 percent to 42.5 percent. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters Sept. 16-17, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
What Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets also give Cooper a big advantage in the race.
He had a 94 percent chance of winning over Kalshi and a 96 percent chance over Polymarket as of Monday afternoon.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to current events, aggregating real money bets into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polls, fundraisers, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment, but do not always accurately predict the future.
A key state of the swing
North Carolina has been one of the most competitive states in recent elections, having supported Democrats in gubernatorial elections but Republicans in federal elections.
At the presidential level, Trump has won the state in each of his three elections, although by narrow margins: about 3.6 points in 2016, 1.3 points in 2020, and 3.2 points in 2024.
Republicans also performed well in the Senate elections. In 2022, Democrat Cheri Beasley lost to Republican Ted Budd, then a member of the House, by about 3 points. Tillis beat Democrat Cal Cunningham by less than 2 points in 2020. In 2016, former Republican Sen. Richard Burr beat Democrat Deborah Ross, now a congresswoman, by nearly 6 points.
The late Sen. Kay Hagan was the last Democrat to win a Senate race in 2008, when former President Barack Obama also won the state.
In gubernatorial races, Cooper won re-election in 2020, and Democrat Josh Stein, who succeeded Cooper, won the November race by nearly 15 points after Republican Mark Robinson faced a series of scandals on the campaign trail.
Democrats gained ground in suburban areas near Charlotte and Raleigh, but Republicans performed well in formerly more competitive rural areas.
As of September 26, there were 2,324,413 registered Democrats in North Carolina and 2,329,597 registered Republicans. However, 3,155,445 North Carolina voters were registered as unaffiliated, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections.
A must-win state for Democrats
The North Carolina Senate race is considered a must-win for Democrats this year.
Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four GOP seats and retain all of their seats to flip control of the chamber.
Democrats are defending two seats in states Trump won in 2024, Georgia and Michigan, as well as a competitive seat in New Hampshire, which only narrowly supported Harris against Trump.
North Carolina is one of their two main targets along with Maine, which Trump lost by 7 points in 2024.
But no other Republican-held seats are up for grabs in states Trump won by single digits or lost in 2024, meaning Democrats must look to more conservative states for a majority. Those targets include Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, and polls show close races in those areas. They would need to win two of those seats in addition to Maine and North Carolina to get a majority.
A Whatley victory would complicate Democrats’ path to victory, as they would need to win an additional double-digit Trump state to take control of the Senate.
Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball view the North Carolina race as “Leans Democratic,” meaning Cooper has an advantage, but the race remains competitive.
The two candidates have not agreed to a debate, but they will explain to voters why they should succeed Tillis in the Senate.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Geoffrey Rowland.
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