Cubs vs. Padres Wild Card Series Preview: Pitch Odds, Game Ratings and How to Watch

Wild Card Series Preview — Tonight (…LATE tonight), the Cubs and Padres will kick off their Wild Card series in San Diego. This best-of-three set will be a rematch of the series that went the Cubs’ way last postseason, but this time at Petco Park instead of Wrigley Field.

Last year, the Cubs won Game 1, lost Game 2, and advanced to the NLDS after their 3-1 win in Game 3. This series was all about the Padres bullpen and the Cubs defense, which makes it seem like it could be a similar story again this year. But before we get into all that, let’s talk about how these teams ended their regular season(s) in two very different ways.

Cubs vs. Padres: Recent Performances

The Cubs limped into the postseason, finishing September with an 11-13 record, as injuries to Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman slowed them down considerably down the stretch. The Padres, on the other hand, have been one of the hottest teams in the league for some time, finishing September with an 18-6 record (43-23 overall in the second half of the year). Yeah.

Yeah too? The home/road splits for San Diego this season.

But despite the Padres’ hot streak and home-field advantage, the Cubs are favored to win by both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.

FanGraphs Create NLDS Odds:

• Small: 54.1%
• Padres: 45.9%

Baseball reference makes NLDS odds:

• Small: 56.8%
• Padres: 43.2%

I don’t really know what to think of this, because it frankly seems way too generous for the Cubs (maybe a superior team on paper, but probably not under the circumstances). After all, the Padres are red hot. This series is in San Diego. The Cubs traveled across the country last week (from Chicago to Boston, from Tampa Bay to San Diego). And San Diego has a huge advantage over the Cubs, which tends to matter a lot in a short series like this.

Remember last year’s Wild Card round? San Diego pulled starters and leaned on its bullpen in the second or third inning. And although the Cubs nonetheless emerged triumphant, they only scored six total runs in the three games.

Indeed, no team in baseball topped the Padres’ bullpen’s WAR of 8.9, and their ERA of 3.53 ranked fifth in MLB. Their closer, Mason Miller, is still in the conversation for best reliever in baseball, and he’s not their only stud (Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez have also been huge).

I suppose you can take comfort in the fact that Miller allowed an uncharacteristic eight earned runs during his final IP of 14.2, but even throughout that stretch he struck out 45.2 percent of the batters he faced. You won’t find me grateful or optimistic every time he enters the game, which will be often.

Cubs vs. Padres: How Do They Compare?

On the other hand, the Cubs offense should hold an advantage here this week. Despite their streak this season, the Cubs have been the best offense in baseball. They led the league in wRC+, runs scored, RBI, walk rate and SLG. Meanwhile, they finished with the third-most home runs (most in NL) and the second-highest OBP.

Additionally, they can hit lefties (122 wRC+, 1st in MLB), they can hit righties (112 wRC+, t-1st in MLB), and they are patient without striking out too often (0.50 BB/K, t-1st in MLB).

The Padres are not a bad offense by any means, finishing with a 102 wRC+ overall, but they are below average against lefties (98 wRC+) and were right in the middle of the pack for home runs this year. And home runs tend to be especially important in short postseasons, as you might imagine.

But here’s something else: the Padres really turned up the heat in the second half of the season, literally trailing the Cubs in wRC+. And that’s largely because, out of nowhere, Fernando Tatis Jr. decided to remind himself that he’s Fernando Tatis Jr., turning his first-half 102 wRC+ into a second-half 172 wRC+.

The Cubs were even better overall. And hey, Alex Bregman did almost exactly the same thing as Tatis (98 wRC+ → 176 wRC+). But it will be close.

Defensively, no team in baseball was as good as the Cubs, who were historically good in every way. HOWEVER, the Padres were a top 5 defensive team in baseball. The last time these two teams met in the postseason, the Cubs’ defensive effort, led largely by Dansby Swanson, was the difference. Then Padres manager Mike Shildt literally said it after the series ended.

Cubs vs. Padres: Kickoff games

We already know that the Padres have a significant relief advantage — at least when it comes to traditional one-inning relievers — but the gap between expected starters in this series is nowhere near that wide.

In Game 1, Matthew Boyd takes the mound for the Cubs, after a strong finish to the season. He will pitch on regular rest and against a Padres team that is weaker against left-handed pitchers. I returned a little more to the Boyd decision yesterday. Here is an excerpt:

Matthew Boyd has faced the Padres twice so far this season, getting blown out against them in San Diego in April (4.0 IP, 8H, 5ER, 2BB, 4K), before doing a bit better towards the end of June (5.0 IP, 8H, 3ER, 0BB, 2K).

Here’s a look at the game history between Matthew Boyd and some of the Padres’ key players:

• Alexandre Bogaerts: 4-20, HR, 2BB, 3K
• Manny Machado: 9-19, 4 2B, HR, 0BB, 3K
• Fernando Tatis Jr.: 3-12, HR, 0BB, 2K

Boyd’s season was a bit rough, as he suffered multiple injuries, including knee surgery. But as I mentioned above, he’s looked stronger over the last five to six weeks and checks a lot of other boxes, from veteran and playoff experience, to left-handedness, to availability. The Cubs rotation is a hodgepodge of imperfect options for ONE game, but it appears the Cubs made the most obvious choice in picking Boyd.

If I had to guess, the Cubs will likely limit Boyd to no more than two plays under the order. Not only is that the approach for most starters in this era of postseason baseball, but it might make more sense for a team like the Cubs, whose postseason roster will likely feature a handful of “extra” starter types. Whether the Cubs want to stick with another lefty (like Imanaga or Peterson) after Boyd or go with one of their righties (Javier Assad? Colin Rea? Maybe even Clay Holmes?), I’m not sure. But I just wouldn’t expect to see Boyd deep in this match.

Opposite Boyd tonight is Michael King, the 31-year-old right-hander with a 3.21 ERA in 32 healthy starts this season.

King doesn’t hit a lot of guys and isn’t stingy with free passes either. But he’s good at limiting hard contact and has been able to keep the ball on the ground quite a bit this year (with an extremely low line strike rate to boot). He has generally been neutral this season and did not face the Cubs earlier this year.

One note: Alex Bregman is 7-8 with two doubles and two walks lifetime against King. It’s a small sample, but a lot of success.

It’s not yet clear who will start Game 2 for the Cubs, but Cubs manager Craig Counsell seemed to hint that it would be Kevin Gausman.

Gausman was previously the favorite to pitch tonight in Game 1, but a shoulder injury in his last regular season start appears to have delayed that option for a day. Depending on what happens tonight, you might even see Gausman starting the game *and also* Clay Holmes coming in afterward.

Indeed, the Cubs could take this approach throughout the postseason, if they advance. They have so many starting options, very few of which have stood out from the pack. So we might see more starters getting involved than usual.

For the Padres, Nick Pivetta is expected to start Game 2, although I don’t think that’s official yet either. Pivetta spent most of the season on the IL (elbow flexor strain), but returned to the big league mound on September 7. In four starts since his return, Pivetta has allowed just three earned runs over 18.2 IP with 17 strikeouts against just two walks.

No idea who will start Game 3 if necessary, but again, it will depend heavily on what happens in the first two games.

Other scenarios

Some other things to know about this series:

• I mentioned both of those points above, but I really think you should expect to see very aggressive bullpen usage for the Padres and several starters get into action for the Cubs. This could be a strange few games on the pitching front, as postseason baseball tends to be in this era.
• Cubs color commentator Jim Deshaies will be on the NBCSN/Peacock broadcast for this series, which is awesome.
• Alex Bregman will undoubtedly play this week, but it remains to be seen whether he will be at DH or third base. If he DHs, you can probably expect to see Pedro Ramirez at third base until there is a lefty on the mound, then Matt Shaw could come in.
• You should be afraid of Mason Miller… HOWEVER, the Cubs scored a few runs against him in April. It is not infallible. He’s just really, really good.

Cubs vs Padres – Matchups and Odds:

Cubs vs Padres – Full Playoff List:

To be announced. I will upload them here as soon as they are published.