Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan regained ground on Democrat Mary Peltola in Alaska’s tight Senate race Wednesday, but suffered a setback in one of the state’s GOP strongholds.
Of the 5,578 additional votes reported, Sullivan added 2,836 to Peltola’s 2,561 to narrow his deficit to his Democratic rival to 3,975. However, one analyst pointed out that he would have hoped to get a larger share, given that most of the absentee ballots came from the Matanuska-Susitna precinct.
The region of south-central Alaska, known as Mat-Su, is often described as one of the “reddest” in the state because of its long-standing pattern of strongly conservative and Republican voting in state and local politics.
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The state’s conservative identity was especially evident in 2024, when all candidates vying for legislative seats in Mat-Su Borough districts on the November general election ballot were Republicans, according to the Alaska Beacon. It’s a quirk made possible by the state’s four-primary system, which allows multiple candidates from the same party to advance to the general election.
Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub, said the vote count “was actually a really bad update for Sullivan.”
“Most of these absentee ballots came from Mat-Su, Alaska’s reddest region and its largest source of votes,” Donnini wrote on social media. “They just weren’t red enough. His path to victory is almost nonexistent at this point.”
“There was just a little from Peltola’s base in AK HD 39 – that was D+50 and that offset most of Sullivan’s gains,” he added.
With 86 percent of the votes counted, Peltola was still in the lead with 48.9 percent of the vote to Sullivan’s 47.3 percent. His lead is now smaller than the 4,100 votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. of Petersburg, whose candidacy in the election was hotly contested.
Still, Peltola’s team pointed to Mat-Su’s results as proof of the strength of their campaign.
“As Mary continues to outperform in traditionally conservative areas of the state, today’s vote drop is further evidence that Sullivan’s path to victory is nonexistent,” Cheryl Bruce, campaign manager for Alaskans for Mary, said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
“We expected much stronger support for Sullivan from the Mat-Su area, and by removing only 275 votes, it is clear that the remaining pockets of support for Sullivan are diminishing by the day,” Bruce added.
“Voters are choosing Alaska over party. As we’ve said, tens of thousands of early votes and mail-in ballots from Anchorage and rural Alaska remain uncounted and will break for Mary, sending her to the United States Senate.”
News week contacted Sullivan’s campaign for comment via email Thursday morning.
This is a developing story and will be updated.
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