Darline Graham hit by troubling poll a day before Trump rally

Midterm elections are generally seen as a test of the political environment facing the ruling party, and the president’s party has historically lost seats in these elections. Trump won South Carolina in the 2024 presidential election against then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

The late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, Darline’s brother, won the seat in the 2020 election cycle as well as the June primary. He died from an aortic dissection due to arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease, a preliminary examination by the D.C. medical examiner determined. He died in July at the age of 71, following what his office described as a “brief and sudden illness.”

Following his death, Darline was sworn in to his seat three days later, with Trump’s support.

Meanwhile, Trump’s overall approval rating and ranking on specific policy issues such as the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have fallen recently, with U.S. households consistently reporting affordability issues. The lower polls come as Trump crisscrossed the country ahead of Nov. 3 to rally for potentially vulnerable Republican candidates, including his previous stops in South Carolina.

News week The Graham and Andrews campaigns were contacted by email for comment on Wednesday.

What you need to know

The poll shows that men prefer Graham 55 percent to Andrews’ 40 percent, and the reverse for women, with 54 percent supporting Andrews while 43 percent supporting Graham. Fifty-seven percent of independents support Andrews compared to 37 percent who support Graham.

Graham won majority support from white voters 45 and older, whites with and without college degrees, and likely Republican voters. The survey shows that 89% of Trump voters in 2024 supported Graham, compared to 8% of Trump voters who support Andrews.

Graham’s favorability in the poll is 44 percent, compared to an unfavorable rating of 41 percent. Andrews’ favorable rating is 45 percent, compared to an unfavorable rating of 29 percent. The survey shows that 51 percent think Andrews would do a better job on the economy, compared to 43 percent who think Graham would. On immigration, 50 percent said Graham would do a better job, compared to 44 percent who said Andrews would.

Forty-nine percent said Andrews would do what’s best for ordinary South Carolinians, compared to 46 percent who said Graham would.

The poll surveyed 707 likely voters in the state from October 19-26, 2026, with a margin of error of 4.3%.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as skinny Republican and prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket both show Graham in the lead as of Wednesday afternoon.

D. Stephen Voss, professor of politics at the University of Kentucky, said News week Wednesday, “Polls are trending toward Democrats by increasing margins, so surprises wouldn’t be impossible if this trajectory continues after most polls have left the field. Even the best polls are just snapshots in time; they can’t predict the future. Still, most voters have made up their minds by the end of October, so Republicans can have reasonable hope that their position has bottomed out and that they will still hold in States like South Carolina that have consistently been tilted in their favor.

“The big question mark hanging over all of these polls is whether Democrats will continue to display in their favor the large enthusiasm gap that the party has enjoyed in low-turnout special elections. Greater mobilization among Republican voters for these competitive statewide races would provide a cushion that the Republican Party has so far lacked.”

Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, also said News week Wednesday, “It’s hard to believe, but that seems to be the current poll. I think in the final days, a lot of Republicans will probably ‘go home,’ if only out of sympathy. But if the Democrats can win there, then it’s hard to imagine that the Senate will remain out of their reach.”

What other polls show

An InsiderAdvantage poll showed Graham with 46 percent to Andrews’ 45 percent, Libertarian Kasie Whitener with 2 percent, Constitution Party candidate Mark Hackett with 3 percent and 4 percent undecided. The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters in South Carolina from September 28-29, 2026 and had a margin of error of 2.83%.

A previous InsiderAdvantage survey from last month also showed Graham with a slight lead with 45.1 percent to Andrews’ 43.2 percent. The survey shows that 3.2 percent declared another candidate while 8.5 percent were undecided. This poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters from September 8-9, 2026 and had a margin of error of 2.83%.

Newsweek Reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors about this story: Jason Lemon And Gray R.Thomas