FILE – Faithfully await the start of Pope Leo XIV’s Angelus prayer, St. Peter’s Square in the Vatican, August 2, 2026.
Gregorio Borgia/AP
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Gregorio Borgia/AP
WASHINGTON — Record heat this summer in Europe contributed to the deaths of more than 50,000 people, nearly two-thirds of them blamed on human-caused climate change, a new study finds.
Researchers modeled heat-related deaths for different age groups in 854 European cities during repeated heat waves in June, July and August and found that 50,391 people died because of hotter temperatures, and of those, 32,619 died because of additional heat caused by burning coal, oil and gas, according to a study published in an upcoming issue of Nature Health.
That’s 71% more than the previous deadliest summer, which was 29,480 in 2022, according to the same researchers, who produced a study earlier this month on annual summer heat-related deaths in these European cities. And this summer’s death figures are underestimated because they don’t take into account the deadly heat wave in May and only take into account deaths in these 854 cities, which represent around 40% of Europe’s population, according to the study authors.
FILE – People cool off at a public fountain in Paris, June 26, 2026.
Christophe Éna/AP
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Christophe Éna/AP
About a third of the deaths occurred between June 17 and July 1, a particularly intense heat wave when temperatures were 9.5 degrees Fahrenheit (5.3 degrees Celsius) above normal, said Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, study co-author and biostatistician at Imperial College London.
“In much of western and northern Europe, our infrastructure is simply not designed to cope with the temperatures we are currently experiencing due to the effects of human-caused warming,” said lead author Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. She said some European cities this summer had temperatures 21.6 F (12 C) warmer than normal.
Of those 50,000 people, more than 32,000 died from added heat from human-caused climate change, the study found. Italy, France, Spain and Germany recorded the highest number of deaths, according to the study. Of all European capitals, Rome recorded the highest number of heat deaths between 2000 and 2025, according to the team’s study earlier this month.
An extra dose of heat from burning fossil fuels
This would have already been an abnormal natural heat wave on top of huge climate change, Barnes said. She said Europe is the fastest-warming continent — although the Arctic, which is not a continent, is warming even faster — and is 4.5 F (2.5 C) warmer than in pre-industrial times.
“Simple underlying warming from human activity, primarily from burning fossil fuels, is raising all of our temperatures by what appears to be quite a small amount,” Barnes said. “For many people, it is certain that this additional two and a half degrees (Celsius) of warming is what is going to take these temperatures from uncomfortable to dangerous and potentially deadly.”
FILE – Tourists use umbrellas to protect themselves from the sun on Pantheon square in Rome, June 29, 2026.
Alessandra Tarantino/AP
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Alessandra Tarantino/AP
More than half of the people who died in the European heat were aged 85 or older, but the sweltering temperatures also killed more than 800 people aged 20 to 44, Konstantinoudis said.
How are death figures calculated?
The team used an established and accepted scientific method to determine how many of the 50,000 heat deaths were due to natural summer heat and how many were due to the effects of heat-trapping gases on the climate. They ran computer simulations of a world without climate change and compared it to the deaths that occurred this summer. The difference is what has been caused by global warming.
The percentage of heat deaths attributable to global warming has increased from about 45% in the early 2000s to 65% today, Barnes said.
“Summers are getting hotter and the analytical tools for attributing deaths to heat are becoming more accurate,” said Dr. Howard Frumkin, former director of the National Center for Environmental Health in the United States, who was not involved in the study. “Together, these two trends are giving rise to increasingly higher and more accurate counts of heat-related deaths.”
The scientific team also had to use statistical modeling to arrive at the base count of 50,000 heat deaths because such deaths are underreported and often not listed on death certificates, although they are a major factor, Konstantinoudis said. Several outside experts agreed with him, calling the methods cutting-edge.
FILE – People walk with an umbrella near the Eiffel Tower in Paris during a heatwave on July 11, 2026.
Aurélien Morissard/AP
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Aurélien Morissard/AP
The researchers ran a complex mathematical equation that has been used in several peer-reviewed studies, Barnes said, which takes into account the age and specific temperatures for each of 854 cities based on a localized optimal temperature that coincides with the fewest deaths. When it is hotter or colder, the equation calculates an excess of deaths relative to the lowest death conditions.
The researchers then compared their calculations to real-time estimates from government agencies. Most of the time — but not always — they were a pretty good match, Konstantinoudis said. Methods the team used for the UK heatwaves in May and June calculated an excess death of 2,700 and the UK Health Statistics Agency said it was 2,800, he said.
Cooling and adaptation are necessary, but they are not enough
“We must prepare for the heat we cannot avoid now, with urgent investments in heat early warning systems, equitable access to low-carbon cooling, and outreach systems that monitor and support those most at risk – while rapidly reducing the use of fossil fuels that are causing the crisis,” said Canadian emergency physician Dr. Courtney Howard, president-elect of the Canadian Medical Association, who was not involved in the research.
Adaptation is only part of the answer, said Dr. Jonathan Patz of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who was not involved in the research but also praised it.
“We can’t just clean up the mess on the floor without thinking about turning off the faucet,” said Patz, a professor of health and environment. “So we need prevention at different levels. We need better cooling and protection of vulnerable populations from the inevitable increase in frequency and extreme heat waves. But we also need to get to the root of the problem and absolutely tackle the burning of fossil fuels.”
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