Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska’s Senate race, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis, as vote counting continues in the state.
Peltola widened his narrow lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan with each new batch of votes reported this week. A “likely” characterization indicates that the NBC News decision desk has at least 95% confidence in Peltola winning the race.
See live results here.
Alaska’s is the only remaining 2026 Senate race for which NBC News’ decision desk has yet to make a projection.
If Peltola wins, Democrats will have a 56-44 majority in the Senate next year.
The race has still not been called a week after polls closed as votes continue to be counted. Alaskans are voting overwhelmingly by mail, and ballots postmarked on Election Day are counted as long as they arrive by Nov. 13 — and a few days later for valid overseas voters.
In a race with such a narrow margin, these final votes are important, especially given Alaska’s ranking rules.
If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated and the second-choice votes of that candidate’s supporters are counted. The process then repeats until someone gains a majority.
Gn usa
