The big picture: Democrats did a lot of things right to position themselves for a big night. They recruited candidates who put red Senate races that seemed out of reach within their reach. Many of these candidates vastly outperformed their Republican opponents.
- But polls across the board still show an election of the lesser evil — or, as one Republican linked to President Trump’s political operation described it, one that the party’s voters hate more. Voters are more eager to take power away from Trump than to give power to Democrats.
In figures: According to an NBC News pre-election poll, only 29% of registered voters have a positive opinion of the Democratic Party, compared to 38% who have a positive opinion of the Republican Party.
- The same poll gave Democrats a 7-point lead in the generic congressional vote, 52-45.
- And nearly 6 in 10 voters who plan to support Democrats in the election said their vote was about ending the policies of Trump and Republicans — compared to 4 in 10 who said they were more motivated to help Democrats implement their policies, according to an October CBS News/YouGov poll.
Zoom: Many Democrats say they are determined not to repeat the mistake they made after the last midterm elections in 2022. They defied predictions of a red wave and saw it as support for Joe Biden and their party — when in reality voters were increasingly angry.
- The post-2022 findings ultimately laid the groundwork for Trump’s return to the White House after the 2024 election.
- Democrats won the House in the 2018 midterms — and then impeached Trump the following year. This time, presumptive House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) isn’t talking about another Trump impeachment — his 100-day agenda is focused on affordability.
Zoom out: Other Democrats warn that it has been easier to run against Trump when he is in office. Making him the face of the election didn’t work in 2024, and it might not in 2028 either.
- At the Third Way rally in South Carolina earlier this year, Democratic strategist Jim Messina told a crowd of activists and party leaders: “We don’t have an economic message. And if we don’t get it, we’re not going to win” in 2028.
Flashback: The 2006 midterm elections also saw a Democratic uprising against an unpopular war and an unpopular president. Democrats flipped the House and Senate in a major rebuke of President George W. Bush.
- But that year the party had a net positive image of 4 points in NBC polls. Today there are 23 points underwater.
- Two years later, in 2008 – with anti-Bush and anti-war reactions still running high – Democrats harnessed the talents of Barack Obama and called for “change” to win back the White House.
- But a midterm failure in 2026, if it materializes, will offer no guarantee that the party will find an equally talented standard-bearer in 2028.
What they say: “It’s not great for Democrats…for 2028,” Bill McInturff, one of the pollsters who conducted the NBC survey, said of the Democratic Party’s disastrous image.
- “But I don’t see that as an obstacle to their performance in 2026, when the midterm elections will be focused on Trump and these economic numbers.”
The bottom line: Ultimately, many leading Democrats believe it will take a new presidential candidate — and likely one who wins in November 2028 — to fully repair the party’s damaged image.
Alex Thompson and Holly Otterbein of Axios contributed to this story.
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