Driving the news: Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico maintains a slight lead, 50 to 47 percent, over Republican Ken Paxton, and most voters appear to have made up their minds.
- 91% of Talarico supporters and 84% of Paxton supporters said they were not very likely, if at all, to change their minds.
- The survey of 861 likely Texas voters in this election has a margin of error of 3.34%.
What they say: “We’re clearly in the most competitive cycle we’ve seen in the state in a long time,” Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project, told Axios.
- More than half of Democrats (53%) said they were extremely excited about voting in November, compared to 37% of Republicans.
- “You shouldn’t conclude that this means Democrats are going to win all these races,” Henson adds. “That means the Democrats are taking advantage…especially of this poll, of this lack of enthusiasm.”
The big picture: The survey of registered voters took place from September 25 to October 1. 5 amid a costly advertising battle for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas. In just 17 days last month, the Texas PAC spent a whopping $131 million on ads and other activities to boost Paxton.
Zoom: The survey also revealed Democrats hold narrow leads in other statewide contests:
- In the race for governor, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Republican incumbent Greg Abbott 49% to 48%.
- Democrat Vikki Goodwin leads Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 49% to 46%.
- Democrat Nathan Johnson leads Republican Mayes Middleton 48% to 47% in the race for attorney general.
- All are within the margin of error.
Between the lines: Close elections reflect party loyalty more than enthusiasm for individual candidates, Henson says.
- Many voters have little knowledge of the candidates, but express their preferences along political lines when asked to choose.
- For example, in the comptroller race, most voters have a neutral or no opinion on Republican Don Huffines or Democrat Sarah Eckhardt, although the race is almost tied in the poll.
- “In these down races, we get a lot of party allegiance and party mobilization,” Henson says.
Flashback: The final polls from the UT/Texas Politics Project before the last three U.S. Senate elections in Texas were within 3 points of the final result.
- In the October 2024 poll, US Senator Ted Cruz was ahead of Democrat Colin Allred by 8 points. Cruz won the election by 8.5 points.
The bottom line: All six statewide contests studied fall within the margin of error reported by the poll, meaning there is no statistically clear leader.
- Henson cautions that polls are not predictions of election results and that even small changes in turnout could change the outcome.
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