According to the University of Florida Election Lab, 49.6 million early votes had been cast as of Friday evening, with nearly 22.9 million absentee ballots returned, along with 26.8 million in-person votes.
The regular early voting period will be over in 20 states by the end of Saturday, but that figure has already surpassed the previous record of 45.9 million set during the 2022 midterm elections.
And following the trend that has continued since 2020, registered Democrats are ahead of Republicans. Party members represent 43 percent of the vote so far, compared to 32 percent for Republicans and 25 percent for those who are unregistered or registered in a smaller party.
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Democrats lead wave of early voting
By 2026, 47 states, plus the District of Columbia, allow universal early voting, with Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire being the exceptions. Only 27 states track early voting using party registration data, meaning the numbers may not fully reflect voting trends nationwide.
As of 9:39 p.m. ET Friday, the University of Florida Election Lab had tallied 10.3 million votes from registered Democrats, 7.5 million from Republicans and 5.9 million from unregistered or those with a smaller party affiliation.
Thanks to their size, Texas, California and Florida have had the most votes so far, with 6.9 million, 5.1 million and 4.7 million, respectively. And accounting for population shows significant numbers in this year’s battlegrounds, such as Georgia (2.8 million), Michigan (1.9 million), North Carolina (2.3 million) and Ohio (1.5 million).
Friday, the analysis of The associated press found that 50% more Texans voted early this year compared to the 2022 elections, with significant gains in the Senate battlegrounds of Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Kansas and South Carolina – the latter seeing early voting soar by 83%.
It comes as both parties urged voters to cast their ballots before Election Day on November 3.
President Donald Trump called the practice “ridiculous,” while blaming it for his loss to Joe Biden in 2020 and imposing restrictions on mail-in voting. However, the White House encouraged voters to “skip the wait” and vote as early as possible in the 2026 midterm elections.
Meanwhile, Jane Kleeb, chairwoman of the Association of State Democratic Committees, said NBC News in September that the party would “really push people” to vote early in person this year.
“The best way to get Democrats elected is to vote early in person,” she said.
What the polls show in the final days before the midterms
While nearly 50 million votes have already been cast, that’s less than half of the 108 million votes counted by the Pew Research Center for the 2022 general election, meaning many could still be swayed in the final days of the race.
As of Saturday, most surveys and poll aggregators give Democrats a significant advantage in the House and slightly better chances in the Senate.
According to RealClearPolling’s most recent generic congressional voting average, Democrats hold an 8.2-point lead over the Republican Party, between 51.4 and 43.2 percent.
RacetotheWH’s election simulations currently give Democrats a 95% chance of winning a majority in the House. With 236.5 seats projected, that would mark the largest majority in the Lower House since 2016, when Republicans had 241. The same forecaster gives Democrats a 78% chance of flipping the Senate, with 53 seats projected.
And an Economist/YouGov survey released Thursday, based on a poll of 1,440 registered voters between October 23 and 26, found that a plurality of 44 percent expect Democrats to win the House, compared to 31 percent who think Republicans will protect their majority. Expectations were higher in the Senate, although Democrats were still favored by 39 percent to Republicans’ 36 percent.
Contact Newsweek’s editor-in-chief for this story: Edward Pearcey.
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