Democrats optimistic as Trump’s unpopularity imperils Republican midterm hopes | 2026 US midterm elections

Thirty days remain before the midterm elections, and Donald Trump and his Republican allies are doing everything they can to maintain control of Congress.

GOP-aligned Super Pacs have already spent hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising and voter outreach in races expected to decide majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, and plan to spend even more before the election is over. The President, Vice President JD Vance and other top Republicans are fanning out across the country to help vulnerable lawmakers.

So far, there is no sign that the money or the rallies have improved what appears to be a bleak situation for Republicans, less than two years after their resounding victories in the 2024 elections. Newly released polls continue to show the party’s candidates trailing their Democratic opponents in Senate races that will decide the majority and control of the chamber.

“The quality of candidates is outstripping Republicans’ money,” Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer joked this weekend when The New York Times released the latest in a series of closely watched polls that confirmed the momentum behind their bid to win back the Senate.

The surveys, conducted with the University of Siena, found that Democratic Senate candidates led in Alaska, Ohio and Texas — all states Trump won by double digits two years ago. In Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years, party candidate Adam Hamilton was neck and neck with Republican Senator Roger Marshall, while in Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek was narrowly trailing Republican candidate Ashley Hinson. Democratic gubernatorial candidates also led in many traditionally Republican states, the Times and Siena found.

“If the election were held tomorrow, all statewide races would turn blue,” Briscoe Cain, a Republican state representative in Texas, wrote Monday X. Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico and gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa were both ahead in the Times and Siena survey.

“Republican voters are feeling too comfortable and not as intense as they should be about this election. We have more voters than the left in Texas, but we have to vote,” Cain added.

Last Friday, news outlet Semafor reported that the Senate Leadership Fund, a major GOP Super Pac, planned to pull money from its candidate Michael Whatley’s campaign in North Carolina in favor of increasing support for Marshall in Kansas. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate election in North Carolina since 2008, but Whatley has trailed in the polls for months. Democrats need to win at least four House seats to regain the majority they lost in the 2024 elections.

The situation for Democrats seems equally positive in their campaign to retake the House, which Republicans only very narrowly control. A CBS News and YouGov poll released Sunday found that Democrats had a nine percentage point lead in the generic ballot, an important indicator of voter intent in congressional races.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday finds that Trump’s approval ratings remain at the lowest of his career, with only 32% of adults surveyed approving of his performance as president. Independent voters — whose opinions often make the difference in close races — planned to support Democrats by a margin of 16 percentage points, although many remained undecided.

The president’s poor ratings are seen as a major cause of Republican candidates’ struggles nationally, but they are far from the only one. Dissatisfaction with the state of the economy — particularly the price of gasoline and other consumer staples — is another reason, as is the recurring conflict with Iran and concern over Trump’s hardline approach to enforcing immigration laws.

Republicans say they have a chance of winning in both houses of Congress. Eight House Republicans represent districts that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, compared to 22 House Democrats — a number that has increased thanks to the unprecedented redistricting war launched by Trump. Many polls show that voters have unfavorable perceptions of the Democratic Party, even though Republicans’ views are equally negative. And despite strong fundraising by some Democratic candidates, Republicans and groups allied to their agenda have a financial advantage to spend this election.

That may not be enough to stem the disintegration that appears to be occurring within the coalition that elected Trump two years ago. Only 26% of Hispanic voters – who turned to Trump after years of leaning Democratic – plan to vote for Republicans this year, while 52% prefer Democrats, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

“We saw among Latino voters, as we saw across the electorate as a whole, a very strong rejection of the Trump administration, and that translated into an increase in support for Democratic candidates,” said Maria Isabel Di Franco Quinonez, senior research director at Equis Research, a progressive firm that focuses on the community.

If the trend continues, it could bode well for Democrats’ hopes in states and districts with large Latino populations. The effect could be pronounced in Texas, where Republican leaders have drawn new congressional maps to favor their candidates, but only if Latino voters continue to vote as they did in 2024.

“If we see that these levels continue to rise and these districts look more like the kinds of support levels for Democrats that we saw in 2018, then maybe that would translate into Republicans getting an additional seat after redrawing all the lines, instead of getting four or five additional seats,” Quinonez said.