Move over Wisconsin and Arizona. As Democrats make Republicans sweat in a slew of Senate races in red states, a new set of swing states could emerge.
Why it’s important: Some of the tightest Senate races are in Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and even Kansas. Of course, this could be an incident — or a reminder that this is a moody nation, even in a group of red states.
- The conditions that helped Barack Obama win conservative states like Indiana and North Carolina in 2008 — an unpopular war, a battered economy, an electorate hungry for change — could resonate again in 2028.
State of play: Democratic and Republican Senate candidates are engaging in margin-of-error races in red states that not long ago were considered off-limits, even pointless, for many Democrats.
- The Senate races in Kansas and Ohio are tied. The same goes for Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is trying to unseat Sen. Pete Ricketts.
- Democrat James Talarico has consistently led the polls in Texas, although that race appears to be tightening as money flows into the state in the name of Republican Ken Paxton. Alaska is also a breeze.
- President Trump won all of these states by double digits in 2024.
Zoom: Republican operatives told Axios they are far from convinced that what is happening now will create a new slate of swing states in the 2028 White House race.
- They see the current campaign as a rather one-off campaign — a combination of dismay over Trump, high prices and uninspiring results. candidates.
- “None of these states will be targeted (by Democrats) in the 2028 presidential election. I would bet big money on that. But… all of them are in danger this year,” a GOP consultant told Axios.
- “It is based on the atmosphere that we play defense in the R+15 states. There is lethargy on our side,” declared a Republican survey institute. “I don’t think they are the new swing states per se.”
But the Democrats say Better-than-expected performances by their candidates in several red states would at least open the door to an expanded map – with a big “if”.
- “An opening, yes,” former Obama chief strategist David Axelrod told Axios. “A guarantee, barely.”
- Obama, he said, spent an enormous amount of time in rural communities and getting to know voters. Democrats who are doing well in these areas this year have made it a point to talk with conservatives, not at them.
Yes, but: There is no certainty that Democrats will prevail in red states this year, much less that they will chart a course for 2028.
- Polls are narrowing in several other Senate battlegrounds outside of Texas, and the polling industry has seen enough failures and challenges in recent elections to raise questions about whether we’re getting an accurate picture of the political landscape right now.
- Either way, it’s safe to say that the Democrats have made things interesting for the November 3 election.
The big picture: The backlash against Trump set the tone in many of these surprise and surprisingly competitive Senate states, but Democrats also benefited from factors specific to each race.
- In Ohio, former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is better known than incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R).
- In Texas, Democrats have a seminarian candidate in James Talarico who emphasizes the teachings of the Bible while Republicans try to characterize him as a radical leftist. His opponent, Ken Paxton, was dogged by corruption allegations throughout the race.
- In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is the pastor of the nation’s largest United Methodist church. His opponent, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, was hurt by reports that his former medical practice was suing patients even for small unpaid bills, and that his 2020 campaign stiffed a bakery over a $700 bill.
What we’re looking at: To take advantage of any openings Democrats could make this year, the party will need a candidate in 2028 who can appeal to center-right voters the way red-state Democrats have done this year, Axelrod said.
- “Part of the Democrats’ long-term problem is that they are still a party of workers, but they often approach workers, especially in small towns in rural areas, in the spirit of missionaries and anthropologists,” Axelrod said. For example, “we are here to help you become more like us.”
- So in 2028, he added, “it depends on who the candidate is and what kind of bonds of trust that candidate can build.”
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