Democrats are ahead of Republicans in nearly all of the seven battleground states that will determine which party controls the Senate, according to the latest New York Times and Siena University polls ahead of the midterm elections.
Surveys have found that Democrats hold sizable leads in Texas, which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Kansas, which hasn’t elected one since 1932.
To gain a majority in the Senate, Democrats must defend all of the seats they currently hold and flip at least four seats currently held by Republicans. This has been seen as an uphill battle because most of the seats they need are in Republican strongholds.
But the new polls give Democratic candidates a lead in five states that now have Republican senators and are effectively tied in a sixth. They hold leads in Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, and a narrow advantage in Alaska. They are actually related in Iowa.
In Michigan, the only Senate battleground already held by Democrats, the poll finds the Democratic candidate leading by double digits. (It was taken before a Democratic feud erupted in Michigan over the weekend.) The surveys do not include North Carolina, where polls have long shown the Democratic Party in the lead and where Republicans have cut back on campaign spending.
Dissatisfaction with President Trump and frustration with his handling of the economy are weighing on Republicans, polls show. Just 38 percent of likely voters approved of the president’s performance in the seven states in the poll, a surprisingly low figure given that Mr. Trump won five of the states by double-digit margins just two years ago.
The new Democratic strength has been fueled by growing confidence in the party to manage the economy – the main motivator for voters this year. Democrats hold a nine-point advantage on the battleground cost of living, and they have led on this crucial measure in every state.
If the polls are accurate and these trends continue, Democrats would take control of the Senate.
But Democrats have some reason to worry: There are still undecided voters, and those who voted only last month favored Republicans by a nine-point margin.
In the Texas Senate race, James Talarico, a Democratic state lawmaker, held a seven-point lead over Ken Paxton, the state’s Republican attorney general, 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. Mr. Paxton had the worst image of all the candidates included in the survey – by far.
In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins, New England’s last Republican senator, is trailing in her re-election campaign behind Troy Jackson, a former Democratic state senator. Mr. Jackson leads 51 to 45 percent among likely voters.
Polls are imperfect. Six years ago, Ms Collins was behind in every poll leading up to the election – and she still won re-election comfortably.
But the new polls revealed a series of warning signs for Republicans — regarding both their candidates and the political environment as a whole.
In every state except Maine, the Democratic Senate candidate was viewed more favorably than the Republican candidate.
And it’s likely that voters were unhappy with Mr. Trump’s leadership across the board and said they thought Democrats would do a better job managing the cost of living and foreign wars and doing what’s best for ordinary people.
Mr. Trump has been surging through Republican states in an effort to energize his base in the final weeks before Election Day, but polls suggest enthusiasm for the president is waning even within his party. In Ohio, where 82 percent of Republicans approve of the president, the proportion who “strongly” approve of him fell to 51 percent, from 63 percent in June.
And in a Times/Siena poll last week, the Senate race was tied in heavily Republican South Carolina.
One of the biggest advantages Democratic candidates have is that they lead the polls among independent voters in every state surveyed. That includes Iowa, where Josh Turek, a Democratic state lawmaker, was effectively linked to Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee.
Polls found that the Democratic resurgence was fueled by renewed strength among young voters and Latinos, as well as Republicans’ relative weakness among the party’s base of white, working-class voters.
Mr. Trump had made gains among Latino and younger voters in 2024. But this year, his party’s Senate candidates won only about a quarter of younger and Latino voters.
The collapse of Republican confidence in the economy — and Mr. Trump in particular — helps explain how competitive Democrats are in a state like Kansas. Mr. Trump won Kansas by the largest margin among the seven states surveyed, and the state has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century. But diesel prices that rose after the Iran war and the administration’s decision to lower tariffs on imported foreign beef have dismayed farmers.
Adam Hamilton, the Democratic candidate and pastor of the state’s largest church, leads Sen. Roger Marshall, the Republican incumbent, 49 percent to 44 percent.
Mr. Hamilton also enjoys the support of 13 percent of Republicans, including James Gerety, 52, a National Guard retiree living in Meriden, Kan., who said he considered Mr. Hamilton “much more authentic” than Mr. Marshall.
“I had reservations at first, because he was a pastor,” said Mr. Gerety, a registered Republican who considers himself more of an independent. “I’m bothered by the introduction of religion into politics. But Hamilton is trying to lower prices, to get us out of this war with Iran. He’s trying to lower inflation.”
Mr. Marshall also faced criticism after The New York Times reported that he had sued patients for unpaid medical debts, leading to arrests in some cases.
The Times had already surveyed the seven states in September. Democrats gained ground in six states in the final vote (Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas) and lost ground in only one (Alaska).
White, working-class voters formed the backbone of Mr. Trump’s coalition. In 2024, he won about 74% of white voters without a college degree, according to exit polls. Today, in these seven states, Republicans won only 56% of voters.
White-collar voters have proven particularly difficult to reach in polls, and polling errors have already been among the highest in this demographic, an important group in all seven states.
In Michigan, the only Senate seat currently held by a Democrat, the poll gives Dr. Abdul El-Sayed a wide 11 percentage point lead over Mike Rogers, a former Republican congressman, who narrowly lost his 2024 Senate bid.
Dr. El-Sayed, who enjoys political combat like few other Democrats, has fared particularly well with men, a group that historically leans Republican. He’s about even with the group, an improvement from September.
But during the Democratic primary, polls overestimated Dr. El-Sayed’s strength. And he has been embroiled in a bitter public feud with his main rival, Representative Haley Stevens, who backed Mr. Rogers on Sunday in a rare cross-party embrace that gave Republicans hope. Yet Dr. El-Sayed is well ahead on every issue in the poll, including immigration, a traditional Republican strong point.
In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, leads Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican, 49 percent to 44 percent in a race that has attracted half a billion dollars in spending, with Republicans spending $80 million more on advertising, according to AdImpact, the ad tracking service.
In Maine, Mr. Jackson, the Democratic challenger, has improved his image since September, although he remains generally perceived unfavorably. Importantly, he is running in the most Democratic state on the battleground map and remains far more popular than Mr. Trump.
In Texas, 49 percent of likely voters view Mr. Talarico favorably, while 39 percent view him unfavorably, giving him a 10-point advantage despite a huge, highly negative ad campaign against him, funded primarily by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person.
Mr. Paxton, Mr. Talarico’s Republican opponent, has seen his image deteriorate in recent months. Fifty-four percent of likely voters now view him unfavorably, while only 33 percent view him favorably.
Rey Gonzales, a 62-year-old Republican living in Houston, said he had been troubled by the allegations that led to Mr. Paxton’s impeachment and by reports that he had been unfaithful in his marriage. Mr. Gonzales, who says he voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020 but did not vote in 2024, says he plans to support Mr. Talarico only out of dislike for Mr. Paxton.
When asked what he liked about Mr. Talarico, his answer was succinct: “Nothing.”
In Alaska, Mary Peltola, the former Democratic congresswoman challenging Sen. Dan Sullivan, faced criticism after a New York Times investigation found that political operatives aligned with her had recruited another candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, to run as a Republican in the race aimed at taking votes away from the incumbent Republican president.
The survey was largely completed before the article was published. Even so, Ms. Peltola was the only Democrat in this set of polls to lose ground since a previous Times/Siena poll. The poll found her with a slight advantage over Mr. Sullivan, 48 percent to 46 percent.
Sophie June reports contributed.
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