Tom Cruise built his career jumping out of planes, climbing skyscrapers and performing other antics in the name of entertainment. His next move may be his riskiest yet: getting moviegoers to see “Digger,” a rare, big-budget, star-driven original comedy.
The Warner Bros. release, which begins Oct. 2, represents one of the biggest gambles of the fall season. There’s pressure on “Digger” not only to make up for the studio’s terrible year at the box office (with bombs including Maggie Gyllenhaal’s punk rock “The Bride!” and DC’s “Supergirl”) but also to impress the company’s new owners. Paramount Skydance hopes to complete its acquisition of Warner Bros. soon. Discovery.
Maybe it’s not Digger Rockwell who’s to the rescue. “Digger,” directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu and starring an unrecognizable Cruise as a powerful oil tycoon whose company unleashes an ecological calamity, follows a hugely disappointing $12 million to $15 million debut in North America. Projections were between $18 million and $20 million, but have been revised downward in recent days.
The film was greenlit at $125 million, but according to four informed sources, the budget ballooned to between $160 million and $180 million after running over the production schedule. A spokesperson for Warner Bros. disputes these figures. Regardless, a film of this size would need a debut close to $40 million to justify its budget, according to rival executives. Because exhibitors keep about half of the ticket sales and the studio spent an additional $100 million on marketing, “Digger” has a theatrical break-even point of about $350 million globally, according to executives with knowledge of similar films. A spokesperson for Warner Bros. retorted, saying the film’s break-even point was $300 million.
Reviews and word of mouth will play a role in the film’s longevity at the box office, analysts believe. They also note that “Digger” could be bigger overseas, where Cruise films tend to make most of their money. WB’s profitability may take longer because Cruise receives first dollar gross, meaning he earns a percentage of the revenue before the studio recoups the costs.
“Kudos to Warner Bros. for taking a chance; Tom Cruise has earned it,” says exhibitor relations analyst Jeff Bock. “But let’s be honest about where Tom Cruise is right now. He’s a franchise machine. Can audiences accept him again as a transformative actor after presenting himself as an action hero?”
“Digger” is Cruise’s first original film since the 2017 hit “American Made.” (That year, he also starred in the famous flop “The Mummy.”) A profitable draw since the ’80s, Cruise became synonymous with action stardom thanks to the enduring “Mission: Impossible” franchise, then endeared himself to younger generations with the 2022 blockbuster “Top Gun: Maverick.” But even Cruise learned the hard way that moviegoers have become pickier about what’s worth leaving the couch for. His last two “Mission: Impossible” films — 2023’s “Dead Reckoning” and 2025’s “The Final Reckoning” — have seen diminishing returns at the box office.
Cruise, an elusive star who doesn’t talk to the press, has worked aggressively — if selectively — to sell “Digger.” During his worldwide promotional tour, he made a rare podcast appearance on Travis and Jason Kelce’s “New Heights” and participated in his first cover story in two decades with GQ magazine – which raised eyebrows because the actor managed to avoid any personal questions and continually brought the conversation back to his passion for movies.
“It takes a herculean effort to generate word of mouth in a dark comedy,” says Bock. “Tom knows he has to go the extra mile with this movie. His name alone won’t sell it.”
Beyond Cruise’s star power, Warner Bros. co-chairmen Pamela Abdy and Michael De Luca were willing to spend big on “Digger” because Iñárritu also has a strong commercial track record. His 2015 film “The Revenant” grossed $533 million worldwide and earned Leonardo DiCaprio his long-awaited Academy Award for Best Actor. And 2014’s “Birdman” grossed $103 million against an $18 million budget and won best picture. Iñárritu hasn’t released a film theatrically in over a decade; his latest film, the polarizing drama “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” played on Netflix.
“The combination of an accomplished auteur and a big star has resulted in some very interesting and successful films,” says analyst David A. Gross of Franchise Re, citing examples like “One Battle After Another” with DiCaprio and director Paul Thomas Anderson and “F1” with Brad Pitt and director Joseph Kosinski. “But the film has to connect and satisfy many tastes. If word of mouth is poor, the film will struggle.”
Abdy and De Luca, known for their connections in taste and talent, faced similar scrutiny before last year’s “One Battle After Another” – another expensive and expensive auteur swing. This film debuted at $22 million and soared to $213 million worldwide. While this was an impressive result for a nearly three-hour original comedy-drama, these responses weren’t enough to bring the film out of the red. “One Battle” lost $100 million in theaters. It proved valuable in other ways, however, including winning the Academy Award for Best Picture.
Additionally, Warner Bros. was able to withstand significant depreciation as it was at the peak of a massive year at the box office. The studio had produced a string of unprecedented hits, including “Sinners,” “A Minecraft Movie,” “Weapons,” and “Final Destination: Bloodlines.” By 2025, the company had seven films that grossed $100 million domestically and accounted for 21% of the North American box office.
Fast forward a year, and Warner Bros. is not in the same form. The studio has yet to release a single film that grossed $100 million domestically and represents only 6% of the domestic market. This is when the box office is experiencing its biggest year since COVID began, fueled by the best summer season on record.
While all eyes are on Warner Bros. as the studio prepares for new leadership, Paramount isn’t having a much better year. Despite profitable releases like “Scary Movie” and “Scream,” Paramount ranks seventh among studios with just 5 percent domestic market share.
Warners is expected to bounce back with December’s “Dune: Part III.” The third part of Denis Villeneuve’s science fiction franchise, with Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya and Robert Pattinson, promises to be the most profitable part of the series.
But before returning to the desert planet of Arrakis, the studio must clean up a lot red ink. “The bride!” » will lose $100 million in theaters after collapsing with $24 million worldwide against a budget of $90 million. “Supergirl” spent $126 million worldwide against a $170 million budget and will lose $80 million. “The End of Oak Street,” a sci-fi adventure starring Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor, grossed $121 million worldwide against an $85 million budget, representing estimated theatrical losses of $25 million to $40 million. “Practical Magic 2,” a legacy sequel that brought back Nicole Kidman and Sandra Bullock as witchy sisters, is running out of steam with $92 million worldwide against a $75 million budget; it could lose around $30-40 million during its theatrical run. (A source close to “Practical Magic 2” disputes this loss and says the film could turn a profit of $5 million.)
Meanwhile, the studio’s few gains in 2026 have been modest: The adaptation of Emerald Fennell and Margot Robbie’s “Wuthering Heights,” the studio’s highest-grossing release so far with $242 million worldwide, will generate $40 million in profit. “Lee Cronin’s The Mummy” grossed $90 million and will bring in about $10 million for the studio. “Mortal Kombat II” grossed $129 million against a budget of $80 million and will generate earnings of $10 million.
Analysts point out that no one is immune from occasional failure. Traditional studios attempt to create a lineup of films so that easy wins (usually sequels or reboots in reliable properties) can offset creative gambles in a given year. Additionally, studios rely on franchises and bankable stars to drive value across the business, not just on the big screen. Cinema is only one element of profitability – although box office returns dictate the downstream terms of TV and Pay 1 deals.
“Ancillary revenues – digital rentals, sales, streaming and TV licensing – are a vital part of the equation for every studio film,” says Gross. “That’s where a star like Tom Cruise makes his money.”
Earlier this year, Warner Bros. defended its slate, saying, “We believe the business is best served when studios make bold decisions on originals.” » Rival executives praise the company for investing in new ideas, but wonder if there’s a more economical way to do it.
“It’s not about the movies,” says an industry source. “It depends on the conclusion of the agreements and the budgets.”
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