Dodgers dynasty teeters on the brink after Milwaukee BABIP machine earns another win for Brewers
Game 2 of the National League Championship Series on Monday afternoon was a must-win game for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Despite the widespread perception that the Dodgers are the unbeatable superteam, it was Milwaukee, the team that finished with the best record in the league, that played essentially flawless baseball in a Game 1 victory. Although Jacob Misiorowski was not dominant, every time Los Angeles had the opportunity to open the game, “The Miz” and his team’s defense took over.
Already up a run in the second inning, the Dodgers had the bases loaded with postseason star Kike Hernandez at the plate. Once again, the Brewers defense was perfectly positioned to overthrow the inning-ending double play. After Milwaukee’s offense scored two runs against Tarik Skubal, their bullpen continued its remarkable run of success, going 4.2 scoreless innings to secure the victory.
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Still, the Dodgers felt good about their chances with 2025 playoff hero Yoshinobu Yamamoto starting in Game 2 against Logan Henderson. Yet for all the hype surrounding Los Angeles’ remarkable rotation, the Milwaukee BABIP (batting average on balls in play) machine once again kicked into high gear to secure a huge 2-0 series lead and put all three Dodgers prospects on life support with a 7-4 victory.
LA took an early lead thanks to some uncharacteristic carelessness on the part of the Brewers. Mookie Betts walked, Freddie Freeman put him on second and he took third on a wild pitch from starter Logan Henderson. Teoscar Hernandez hit him with a sacrifice fly and the Dodgers had a 1-0 lead with no hits. Sure enough, Milwaukee immediately equalized at the bottom of the first.
The Dodgers missed an opportunity to challenge an obvious missed three-strike call on Brice Turang, who then doubled and scored on a patented Brewers bloop single. William Contreras brought his bat out with one hand, somehow making contact with Yamamoto’s pitch to throw it into left field. It wouldn’t be the last time.
Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras celebrates his home run during the fifth inning of Game 2 of the National League Championship Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
The third round was a near repeat. LA mounted a quick rally on back-to-back singles from Tommy Edman and Mookie Betts. Sal Frelick robbed Freddie Freeman of a double with a nice running catch in the right-center field gap, but an error on a putout attempt at first base led to Edman scoring. But the Brewers, knowing that the Dodgers’ biggest weakness is scoring opportunities, put them where they wanted. Easy putouts from Teoscar Hernandez and Shohei Ohtani ended the “threat” and Milwaukee responded in the bottom of the inning.
David Hamilton hit another bloop single, stole second, and again, Brice Turang reached base on a missed third base that went uncontested by catcher Will Smith. Jake Bauers, one of the worst hitters in baseball before he suited up for Milwaukee, walked after a long at-bat against Yamamoto, and Christian Yelich made him pay with a single to center.
After all that postseason exploits in 2025, Yamamoto only went 2.2 innings, allowing four hits and three runs. Missed challenges, simple bloops, exceptionally well-timed line drives by below-average hitters, Milwaukee’s ideal offensive outing.
Now trailing 3-2, the Dodgers “fight back” in the fifth. Kyle Tucker led off with a double, before a throwing error by Henderson on a Tommy Edman bunt allowed him to score and send Edman to second. A grounder and sac fly gave LA a 4-3 lead, once again getting no hits with runners in scoring position.
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Milwaukee Brewers designated hitter Christian Yelich runs after scoring a two-RBI hit in the third inning of Game 2 of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
Sure enough, William Contreras immediately tied it in the bottom of the inning with a gigantic homer to left center.
The Brewers’ seemingly untouchable bullpen went through another scoreless inning before Milwaukee’s superteam kicked into high gear again in the bottom of the sixth. Hamilton reached on a hit by pitch, advanced to second after a bad putout attempt, went to third on a Jackson Chourio grounder and scored on another end of Contreras’ bat blooper.
Once again, the Brewers relief pitchers proved to be the best pitching unit ever assembled, extending their streak to nearly 29 innings with just one run allowed. Monday marked the first time in postseason history that a team’s bullpen went past five innings in a postseason game without giving up a baserunner. JoJo Romero, Abner Uribe, Trevor Megill, Aaron Ashby, DL Hall…this is the true super-team, and it cost about $17 to build.
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The BABIP continued into the eighth, as David Hamilton crushed a 73 mph single to right field, stole second and scored on another 71 mph erased single from Brice Turang. That hit pushed the Brewers to 5-12 with RISP.
Jake Bauers added another 73 mph bloop single to put Milwaukee up 6-13 with RISP.
Somehow, Milwaukee has perfected the art of running into singles on mishit balls in play. Some may say it’s a skill, but decades of data and information prove to us that it’s not. Players and teams with low exit velocities do not outperform with batting average on balls in play, in fact it is the opposite.
The league leaders in hard hit percentage this season were, in order:
- James Wood
- Elly De La Cruz
- Pete Alonso
- Yordan Alvarez
- Shohei Ohtani
All five had BABIPs at or above league average, Wood and De La Cruz were .344 and .359 respectively. Jac Caglianone finished eighth in hard hit percentage and second in baseball in BABIP. Hitting the ball hard is a skill, soft contact is not. Yet the Brewers have three hitters in the top seven in the BABIP anyway.
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Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Brice Turang celebrates his RBI hit during the eighth inning of Game 2 of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
Does it matter that Milwaukee probably got lucky this season? No not at all. A playoff series is the epitome of a small sample size, and reversion to the mean doesn’t necessarily have to happen over five to seven games. Contreras could hit 17 consecutive bloopers with the end of the stick, because that’s baseball. This is why predictions of a guaranteed Dodgers World Series victory because of their talent have always been so laughable.
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Milwaukee had more hits with runners in scoring position in this game, not a single hard hit, than the Dodgers had in the entire postseason. And they return to Los Angeles with a 2-0 series lead and an overwhelming probability of advancing to the World Series. The gaps between baseball teams are so small that a bounce here or there, a team’s ability to magically ensure that 71 mph bloopers are perfectly placed, even if there is no possibility of doing so, can change a playoff series. David Hamilton, who is objectively a horrible baseball player, reached base four times and scored two runs. Shohei Ohtani, the best player in baseball history, was of no use. It’s not unusual or unexpected, it’s part of the sport. This is why it is impossible for a team to guarantee anything.
Will this matter to those who are “ruining baseball”? Of course not, reality never does.
Gn sports
