It was reported earlier today that the free agent Tarik Skubal hopes to sign before the December 2 lockout and will meet with the Mets next week. Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes said his club has been in contact with Skubal and hopes to meet with him in the near future as well. Jack Harris of the California Post was among those who relayed Gomes’ message.
Skubal is clearly the best free agent of the winter. MLBTR predicted he would get a nine-year contract with $425 million guaranteed. That was more than $300 million difference from projections for all other free agents.
It is possible that the expected lockout and accompanying freezing of transactions will provide a natural framework for the draw. While Skubal apparently prefers to get a deal done before things get dark, he and his Boras Corporation representatives appear to be holding meetings with potential suitors in hopes of moving the tender forward in the coming weeks.
It’s not at all surprising that the Dodgers are involved. They are always interested when elite talent is available. They just acquired Skubal from the Tigers at the deadline a few months ago. Although the club was eliminated by the Brewers in the NLCS, it certainly wasn’t Skubal’s fault. He gave the Dodgers ten starts with a 2.61 ERA after the trade. He then posted a 2.45 ERA in two postseason starts.
Rotation is not really a necessity in the strict sense. They have Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow And Blake Snell already in four places. Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski and others are also available to help you.
But that was also the case at the deadline this year and the Dodgers still went for the kill by adding Skubal. They could do the same thing this offseason. They don’t really have any big needs outside of the pitching staff. The lineup already has great options for every position and doesn’t even have room for top prospects. Jose De Paulawhich led to speculation about a Teoscar Hernández trade.
The bullpen arguably needs more attention than the rotation, as the Dodgers are coming off a loss Alex Vesia, Evan Phillips, Kris Bubic, Blake Treinen and others in free agency. They could let Skubal sign elsewhere and focus on relief weapons, but no succession plans to help the club in 2027 and beyond as much as Skubal can.
If Skubal seeks a traditional long-term deal as MLBTR predicts, it would force the Dodgers to break from their personal habits. They generally prefer shorter-term deals with higher average annual values. Over the past decade, they have only gone over six years for a free agent twice, under special circumstances. Yamamoto was given a 12-year contract upon arriving from Japan, but he was exceptionally young, starting his season at age 25. Ohtani got a ten-year deal, but he’s a unicorn talent and the contract had some notoriously extreme deferrals.
MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker projects the Dodgers to have a cash payroll/LRD of $369 million next year and a competitive tax balance of $388 million. The LRD number is already higher than 2026, as the Dodgers finished at $341 million, while the 2026 CBT number was up at $431 million. In recent years, it has been difficult to predict where the club is ready to go, as they have shown a huge willingness to continue increasing their spending. Owner Mark Walter is currently experiencing financial difficulties and has sold other assets, but he and other club bigwigs continue to insist the Dodgers will not be affected.
The Mets have similar preferences to the Dodgers. That club’s president of baseball operations, David Stearns, has never signed a free agent pitcher to a contract longer than three years. This includes his time managing the Brewers as well as the Mets.
Perhaps these two clubs will try to offer Skubal creative structures in the short term, as they both did with Kyle Tucker. But other teams will certainly get involved as well. The Padres have already been connected to the left-handed star. The Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox and more could step up. Skubal has posted an ERA below 3.00 in four straight seasons now. He won American League Cy Young honors in 2024 and 2025. His 2026 year was cut short by elbow surgery to remove a bone spur, but he still managed to post a 2.72 ERA in 26 starts in that time.
Photo courtesy of Jon Endow, Imagn Images
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