Does anyone actually want to win the middleweight race in the United States?

For a long time, it looked like Neutron would become the first new mid-sized rocket to debut since Antares, but the vehicle had some teething difficulties: Rocket Lab encountered some problems with the Archimedes engine, and more recently the company revealed some challenges with the carbon fiber domes.

The Neutron rocket’s first stage is “the largest pressurized structure ever made from carbon composite,” Peter Beck, head of the Rocket Lab, said this month. “Because of its scale, we had to develop new out-of-autoclave processes to manufacture Neutron, which includes custom cure cycles for very large parts, like the front and rear domes of the first stage propellant tanks.”

This doesn’t seem particularly easy. Given the lack of flight hardware, we’re not sure the company will meet its latest launch goal, which is now expected in 2027.

Planned start of launch: January 2028

Luciole/Northrop Grumman: Eclipse

We started this article with the Antares rocket, developed by Orbital Sciences. This company was later purchased by Northrop Grumman. A few years ago, looking for a local alternative to Antares, Northrop announced a partnership with Firefly to co-develop the Eclipse rocket.

Firefly is developing the Miranda engines that will power Eclipse’s first stage, and that work appears to be progressing well. But there has been little public discussion about developing the first and second stage hardware that will be built around the Miranda engine. Similar to Rocket Lab, Firefly and Northrop also work with carbon composite structures, so this can pose some challenges.

The partnership between Firefly, a new space company, and Northrop, a traditional space company, is also likely to cause friction. It is difficult to make an educated guess on Eclipse because there is great uncertainty about the rocket’s development. Usually this means things are not going well or quickly. For now, we lean toward pessimism.

Planned start of launch: NET 2029